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Blackstone Group (BX) Up 11.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Blackstone Group (BX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Blackstone Group due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Blackstone Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues & AUM Improve

Blackstone’s first-quarter 2020 distributable earnings of 46 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents. Nevertheless, the figure reflects an increase of 4.5% from the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded higher expenses in the quarter, which hurt results to some extent. However, higher revenues and growth in fee-earnings AUM as well as total AUM were positives.

Net loss attributable to Blackstone was $1.07 billion against net income of $481.3 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues & AUM Improve, Expenses Rise

Total segment revenues were $1.14 billion, up 4.2% year over year. The top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 billion. On a GAAP basis, the company recorded negative revenues of $3.08 billion against revenues of $2.02 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.

Total expenses (GAAP basis), excluding compensation and benefits costs, increased 6.7% year over year to $203.8 million.

Fee-earning AUM grew 19.8% year over year to $423.06 billion. Total AUM amounted to $538.01 billion as of Mar 31, 2020, up 5.1% year over year. The rise in total AUM was largely driven by $27.3 billion of inflows.

As of Mar 31, 2020, Blackstone had $4.2 billion in total cash, cash equivalents and corporate treasury investments, and $8 billion in cash and net investments.

Share Repurchase Update

The company repurchased 5 million shares in the quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -12.85% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Blackstone Group has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Blackstone Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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