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Tenneco (TEN) Up 125.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Tenneco . Shares have added about 125.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tenneco due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tenneco Q1 Loss Narrower Than Expected

Tenneco posted first-quarter 2020 adjusted loss per share of 31 cents, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 95 cents. Higher-than-anticipated revenues from Clean Air, Powertrain and Ride Performance segments resulted in the narrower-than-expected loss.

However, the bottom line compared unfavorably with the year ago quarter’s earnings of 52 cents due to lower year-over-year revenues across all the segments.

The OEM auto supplier posted first-quarter 2020 revenues of $3,836 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,677 million. The top line, however, declined from the $4,484 million recorded in first-quarter 2019. Decline in light-vehicle production due to the coronavirus crisis and unfavorable foreign-currency translation hurt revenues.

Segmental Highlights

The Clean Air division’s revenues were $1,545 million compared with the year-earlier figure of $1,779 million. The figure, however, surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,477 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $104 million in the quarter, down from the year-ago quarter’s $140 million.

Revenues in the Ride Performance division came in at $588 million compared with the $733 million recorded in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure, however, outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $563 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $16 million in the first quarter, down 48.4% year over year.

The Powertrain division’s revenues summed $997 million, down from the $1,175 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The figure, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $914 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $90 million in the reported quarter, down 22.4% year over year.

The Motorparts division’s revenues were $706 million, which fell from the $797 million generated in first-quarter 2019. The figure also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $717 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $73 million in the March-end quarter, down from the $90 million recorded in first-quarter 2019.

Financial Position

Tenneco had cash and cash equivalents of $767 million as of Mar 31, 2020, compared with $564 million as of Dec 31, 2019. Long-term debt was $5,837 million, up from $5,371 million as of Dec 31, 2019.

Outlook

Tenneco suspended the 2020 guidance as it expects the coronavirus pandemic’s impact to strain its operations in the days to come.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -28.73% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Tenneco has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Tenneco has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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