Jun 03, 2024

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)

$103.91 USD ( As of 05/31/24 )

Zacks Rank 3-Hold

3
Style: Value:
Growth:
Momentum:
VGM:

Data Overview

52 Week High-Low $122.82 - $79.32
20 Day Average Volume 12,625,258
Beta 1.40
Market Cap 189.43 B
Dividend / Div Yld $0.30 / 0.29%
Industry Media Conglomerates
Industry Rank 72 / 250 (Top 29%)
Current Ratio 0.75
Debt/Capital 27.58%
Net Margin 1.90%
Price/Book (P/B) 1.88
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 15.06
Earnings Yield 4.58%
Debt/Equity 0.38
Value Score
P/E (F1) 21.85
P/E (F1) Rel to Industry 3.83
PEG Ratio 1.29
P/S (F1) 2.12
P/S (TTM) 2.12
P/CFO 15.06
P/CFO Rel to Industry 0.56
EV/EBITDA Annual 19.59
Growth Score
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 26.50%
Hist. EPS Growth (Q0/Q-1) 0.03%
Qtr CFO Growth 36.53
2 Yr CFO Growth 148.86
Return on Equity (ROE) 8.37%
(NI - CFO) / Total Assets -16.88
Asset Turnover 0.44
Momentum Score
1 week Volume change 0.54%
1 week Price Cng Rel to Industry 2.11%
(F1) EPS Est 1 week change 0.56%
(F1) EPS Est 4 week change 1.28%
(F1) EPS Est 12 week change 3.32%
(Q1) EPS Est 1 week change -0.42%

Summary

Disney shares have lagged the industry in the past three months, primarily due to ongoing concerns regarding ESPN future and recent havoc at its Lucasfilm division due to the delay in the release of Star Wars: Episode IX. Identical to performances in the past few quarters, ESPN disappointed in the third quarter again. Further, the stock recently came under pressure after CEO cautioned that fiscal 2017 earnings are likely to be similar to last year. However, the company’s decision to terminate distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription streaming and having its own streaming services – one for Disney and Pixar brands and another for ESPN followers is likely to be a driving factor in the long run. Further, in an effort to attract online viewers, Disney, which had earlier acquired 33% stake BAMTech, announced its intention to acquire another 42% stake in the firm. However, Parks & Resorts business continues to bode well.

Elements of the Zacks Rank

Agreement Estimate Revisions (60 days)

75%

Q1 (Current Qtr)

Revisions: 4

Up: 1 Down: 3

60%

Q2 (Next Qtr)

Revisions: 5

Up: 3 Down: 2

100%

F1 (Current Year)

Revisions: 7

Up: 7 Down: 0

100%

F2 (Next Year)

Revisions: 8

Up: 0 Down: 8

Magnitude Consensus Estimate Trend (60 days)

60
Days
30
Days
7
Days
Current
Q1 -2.46%
60
Days
30
Days
7
Days
Current
Q2 -0.89%
60
Days
30
Days
7
Days
Current
F1 +1.93%
60
Days
30
Days
7
Days
Current
F2 -2.51%

Upside Zacks Consensus Estimate vs. Most Accurate Estimate

Most Accurate: 1.18
Zacks Consensus: 1.19
Q1 -0.59%

Most Accurate: 1.11
Zacks Consensus: 1.11
Q2 0.00%

Most Accurate: 4.75
Zacks Consensus: 4.76
F1 -0.04%

Most Accurate: 5.43
Zacks Consensus: 5.44
F2 -0.25%

Surprise Reported Earnings History

Reported: 1.21
Estimate: 1.12
Q End 03/24
Reported: 1.22
Estimate: 0.97
Q End 12/23
Reported: 0.82
Estimate: 0.67
Q End 09/23
Reported: 1.03
Estimate: 0.99
Q End 06/23

Average 4 Qtr Surprise

 

The data on the front page and all the charts in the report represent market data as of 05/31/24, while the report's text is as of 10/03/2017

Overview

The Walt Disney Company is one of the world’s largest diversified entertainment companies. The Burbank, CA.-based company’s assets span across movies, television, publishing and theme parks. The company reports its operating results under the following segments:

Media Networks (41% of Q3 Fiscal 2017 Revenues) segment includes domestic broadcast television network, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, cable networks, domestic broadcast radio networks and stations, and publishing and digital operations. The company operates the ABC Television Network and 8 owned television stations; ESPN and Disney Channel cable networks; ESPN Radio and Radio Disney networks.

Parks and Resorts (34% of Q3 Fiscal 2017 Revenues) division owns and operates the Disney World Resort in Florida, the Disneyland Resort in California, the Disney Vacation Club, the Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney. The company also has ownership interests in Disneyland Paris, in Hong Kong Disneyland Resort and in Shanghai Disney Resort, and licenses the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan.

Studio Entertainment (17% of Q3 Fiscal 2017 Revenues) segment produces animated and live-action motion pictures, direct-to-video programming, musical recordings, and live stage plays. The library of films is distributed under 5 banners namely Walt Disney Pictures, Touchstone Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilms.

Consumer Products & Interactive Media (8% of Q3 Fiscal 2017 Revenues) division engages with licensees, manufacturers, publishers and retailers to design, develop, publish, promote and sell a wide variety of products based on existing and new Disney characters and other intellectual property via its Merchandise Licensing, Publishing and Retail businesses throughout the world. The segment also creates and delivers Disney-branded entertainment and lifestyle content across interactive media platforms.

Reasons To Sell:

Disney’s primary cash cow, ESPN, has been under immense pressure as the Pay-TV landscape continues to change owing to migration of subscribers to online TV.

Declining Subscriber Count at ESPN a Concern: In the past three months, the company's shares have declined 7%, wider than the industry's fall of 5%. Further, the stock recently came under pressure after CEO cautioned that fiscal 2017 earnings are likely to be similar to last year. Havoc at its Lucasfilm unit due to the delay in the release of Star Wars: Episode IX is also a cause of concern for investor. Over the last few quarters, Disney’s ESPN has been closely monitored by investors because of its performance. Identical to performances in the past few quarters, ESPN has disappointed investors in the third quarter again. Falling subscriber base and higher programming costs at ESPN were the major concerns this quarter too. Fresh NBA agreement and increase in contractual rate for NFL programming drove the overall programming cost higher for ESPN. Most media companies are failing to cope with "cord cutting" as consumers are unwilling to pay for large bundles of channels. The company expects programming costs to increase 8% year over year due to $600 million in incremental costs linked with the first year of the company’s fresh NBA contract. Out of $600 million expenses, $400 million incurred in the third quarter.

Stock Looks Overvalued: Considering price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, Disney looks pretty overvalued when compared with the industry. The stock has a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 17.43, which is below the median level of 18.48 scaled in the last one year. Meanwhile, the trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the industry is 13.41.

Lower-than-expected top-line Performance: Disney’s revenues missed the Zacks Consensus estimate for the fourth straight quarter. In the reported quarter, revenues came in at $14,238 million, almost flat year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14,442 million on account of higher programming costs at ESPN as this is the first year of fresh NBA contract and sharp decline in Studios Entertainment revenues. Further, the recent news of the decline in rating at the company’s youth-focused Disney Channel may hurt the top line.

Currency Fluctuations & Other Headwinds: With its huge international presence, Disney remains prone to unfavorable foreign currency translations which may have an adverse impact on its top and bottom line results. This time around, management cautioned that lack of hedges at favorable rates against forex volatility will squeeze out $175 million from its fiscal 2017 operating income.

Advertising Slump Can Hurt Revenues: Advertising remains a significant source of revenue for Disney, which remains vulnerable to the macroeconomic headwinds. The deterioration in the economy and lower primetime ratings will adversely affect the advertising revenues and, in turn, the company’s revenue generating capabilities.

Risks

  • Direct-to-Consumer Streaming Service: Disney stated that it will terminate distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription streaming of the new movies starting in 2019. Instead, the company will have its own streaming services – one for Disney and Pixar brands and another for ESPN followers. Disney will start online streaming services for ESPN sports in early 2018 and its branded direct-to-consumer streaming service in 2019 will air Disney movies as well as TV shows. The ESPN-branded multi-sport streaming service will give an option to enjoy 10,000 live international, national and regional games every year. Tournaments like Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, Major League Soccer, Grand Slam tennis, and college sports will be live streamed. Meanwhile, through the fresh Disney-branded service subscribers can view both Disney’s and Pixar’s latest live action and animated movies, starting with the 2019 theatrical slate. Movies like Toy Story 4, the sequel to Frozen and The Lion King will also be streamed. This step gives an indication that Disney is confident about distributing content itself without relying on Netflix or any other companies.
     
  • Consistent Performance by Parks & Resorts Driving Growth: Disney’s Parks & Resorts division continues to impress investors. In third-quarter fiscal 2017, the segment reported revenues of $4,894 million, up 12% from the year-ago period. The segment’s operating income climbed 18% to $1,168 million, backed by growth at the company’s international operations which was due to robust performance of Shanghai Disney Resort and Disneyland Paris. Rise in guest spending and attendance were the main reasons behind growth in operating income at Disneyland Paris. Both attendance and per capita spending at the company’s domestic park increased 8% and 2%, respectively during the quarter. It is also satisfied with the Shanghai Disney, which completed first full year of operations in June. It is also anticipated to be modestly profitable in this fiscal year. The company is focused on deploying capital towards expansion of the Parks and Resorts business, consequently, increasing market share and creating long-term growth opportunities.
     
  • Acquires Majority Stake in BAMTech: Most media companies are failing to cope with "cord cutting", as consumers are unwilling to pay for large bundles of channels. Disney is making full effort to bring back ESPN’s golden days. In an effort to attract online viewers, the company has inked a deal with video streaming, data analytics as well as commerce management company BAMTech. Disney which had earlier acquired 33% stake in BAMTech announced its intention to acquire another 42% stake in the firm. Per the agreement, the company will have shell out $1.58 billion to buy another 42% stake in BAMTech. The company stated that it will use BAMTech to create an ESPN-branded, over-the-top video streaming service that will cover a variety of sports. Disney is striving to make its content accessible to more customers. It said that AT&T’s DirecTV will feature channels like ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, Freeform, Disney Channel, Disney XD as well as Disney Junior in their subscription packages in the upcoming DirecTV Now OTT service. The company stated that mobile apps are going to play an important role in the future of media and ESPN is rightly on the way of taking the advantage of the trend with wide range of apps.

Last Earnings Report

Quarter Ending 03/2024

Report Date May 07, 2024
Sales Surprise -0.23%
EPS Surprise 8.04%
Quarterly EPS 1.21
Annual EPS (TTM) 4.28

Disney Q3 Earnings Top, Unveils Streaming Services

The Walt Disney Company posted better-than-expected earnings for the third straight quarter, as it reported third-quarter fiscal 2017 results.

The company’s earnings in the reported quarter came in at $1.58 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53 but decreased 2.5% year over year. Meanwhile, revenues came in at $14,238 million, almost flat year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14,442 million. The year-over-year decline in bottom line was primarily impacted by higher programming costs at ESPN as this is the first year of fresh NBA contract and sharp decline in Studios Entertainment revenues.

The company’s total operating income came in at $4,011 million during the quarter, down 10% year over year. The downside was due to 22% and 17% decline in operating income from Media Network, and Studio Entertainment, respectively.

Disney to Terminate Netflix Partnership

Concurrently, Disney stated that it will terminate distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription streaming of the new movies starting in 2019. Instead, the company will have its own streaming services – one for Disney and Pixar brands and another for ESPN followers.  

Disney will start online streaming services for ESPN sports in early 2018 and its branded direct-to-consumer streaming service in 2019 will carry Disney movies as well as TV shows. The ESPN-branded multi-sport streaming service will give an option to enjoy 10,000 live international, national and regional games every year. Tournaments like Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, Major League Soccer, Grand Slam tennis, and college sports will be live streamed.

Meanwhile, through the fresh Disney-branded service subscribers can view both Disney’s and Pixar’s latest live action and animated movies, starting with the 2019 theatrical slate. Movies like Toy Story 4, the sequel to Frozen and The Lion King will also be streamed.

Disney to Acquire Majority Stake in BAMTech

In an effort to attract online viewers, the company which had earlier acquired 33% stake in video streaming, data analytics as well as commerce management company BAMTech announced its intention to acquire another 42% stake in the firm. Per the agreement, the company will have shell out $1.58 billion to buy another 42% stake in BAMTech.

In the past few quarters Disney’s ESPN has been a hot topic in the media industry and investors are closely monitoring the performance of ESPN. Identical to performances in the past few quarters, ESPN has disappointed investors in the third quarter again. Falling subscriber base and higher programming costs at ESPN continues to hamper the company’s results. Most of the media companies are failing to cope with "cord cutting" as consumers are unwilling to pay for large bundles of channels.

ESPN has sealed a number of deals with new platform owners, mostly over-the-top. These deals have started to give positive results and are also increasing the number of subscribers. Moreover, the company has inked a deal with Hulu and another entity, and also is in discussion with others. The company had earlier stated that mobile apps are going to play an important role in the future of media and ESPN is rightly on the way of taking the advantage of the trend with wide range of apps.

Segment Details

The Media Networks segment’s revenues were down 1% to $5,866 million, primarily due 3% decrease in Cable Networks revenues to $4,086 million. However, broadcasting revenues rose 4% year over year to $1,780 million.

The segment’s operating income came in at $1,842 million, down 22% year over year. Cable Networks saw 23% drop in operating income to $1,462 million, while the Broadcasting segment reported a 22% slump in operating income to $253 million. Operating income from equity in the income of investees plunged 18% to $127 million. Sharp decline in Cable Networks operating income was due to dismal performance of ESPN. Weaker results at ESPN were mostly due to increase in programming cost in comparison with the preceding year, fall in advertising revenues. Further, it was affected by severance and contract termination expenses which overshadowed the affiliate revenues growth. Decrease in advertising revenues were chiefly due to decline in average viewership. Meanwhile, growth in affiliate revenues was driven by rise in contractual rate, which mitigated the fall in subscribers.

Parks and Resorts revenues came in at $4,894 million, up 12% from the year-ago period. The segment’s operating income climbed 18% to $1,168 million, backed by growth at the company’s international operations which was due to robust performance of Shanghai Disney Resort and Disneyland Paris. Rise in guest spending and attendance were the main reasons behind growth in operating income at Disneyland Paris. Meanwhile, operating income at the company’s domestic operations was flat year over year as rise in expenses were offset by higher guest spending and volumes. Both attendance and per capita spending at the company’s domestic park increased 8% and 2%, respectively during the quarter.

Further, the segment results were also driven by timing of the Easter holiday, which fell in the third quarter compared with second quarter in the previous year. The company is also satisfied with the Shanghai Disney, which completed its first full year of operations in June. It is also anticipated to be modestly profitable in this fiscal year.

The Studio segment generated revenues of $2,393 million, down 16% year over year. Moreover, operating income dropped 17% to $639 million. Sharp decline in operating income was due to dismal performance in theatrical as well as home entertainment distribution, which offset growth at TV/SVOD distribution, home entertainment and decline in film cost impairments. Decrease in theatrical distribution results were due to better performance of the company’s releases in the prior year-quarter compared with this quarter. During the third quarter, the company’s major releases included Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and Cars 3, while in the year-ago quarter it released Captain America: Civil War, The Jungle Book, Finding Dory and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

However, analysts believe that the coming two years will be the most fruitful for Disney. The studio is all set to continue with its success story beyond Star Wars, Zootopia and Beauty and the Beast as it boasts of an impressive lineup of big budget movies up to 2018.

Movies which are lined up for 2017 include Thor: Ragnarok, Coco and last but not the least, one of the most awaited releases of the year Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi.  Moreover, the success of its movies will mean great business for its Consumer Products division as demand for the merchandise associated with successful movies usually skyrocket. In 2018, the company is expected to release Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Avengers: Infinity War, The Incredibles 2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Consumer Products & Interactive Media division saw 5% decrease in revenues to $1,085 million. However, the units’ operating income rose 12% to $362 million. The rise in operating income was mainly due to improvement at the games and merchandise licensing business.

Other Financial Details

Disney, which shares space with Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. (FOXA) generated free cash flow of $3,328 million during the reported quarter, up 33% year over year. The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $4,336 million, borrowings of $18,849 million and shareholder’s equity of $42,531 million, excluding non-controlling interest of $3,520 million.

During the quarter, the company bought back nearly 22.3 million shares for $2.4 billion.

Recent News

Disney to Acquire Majority Stake in BAMTech – Aug 8, 2017

In an effort to attract online viewers, the company which had earlier acquired 33% stake in video streaming, data analytics as well as commerce management company BAMTech announced its intention to acquire another 42% stake in the firm. Per the agreement, the company will have shell out $1.58 billion to buy another 42% stake in BAMTech.

Disney Extends CEO Iger’s Contract to 2019 – Mar 23, 2017

The Walt Disney Company’s board of directors kept faith on the company’s chairman and CEO, Robert A. Iger and extended his contract through Jul 2, 2019. Notably, this marks the third contract extension for Iger. But the question of Iger’s successor still lingers with no proper candidate vying for the coveted spot. This has been a hot topic of discussion in the media industry in the last few years.

Industry Analysis(1)Zacks Industry Rank: NA

Top Peers

Paramount Global (PARA)
Paramount Global (PARAA)
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Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty SiriusXM Series C (LSXMK)
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Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Formula One Series A (FWONA)
Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Formula One Series C (FWONK)
Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)

Industry Comparison Media Conglomerates | Position in Industry: 3 of 14

Industry Peers

  DIS
Market Cap 189.43 B
# of Analysts 8
Dividend Yield 0.29%
Value Score
Cash/Price 0.04
EV/EBITDA 19.59
PEG Ratio 1.29
Price/Book (P/B) 1.88
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 15.06
P/E (F1) 21.85
Price/Sales (P/S) 2.12
Earnings Yield 4.58%
Debt/Equity 0.38
Cash Flow ($/share) 6.90
Growth Score
Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) 0.03%
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 26.50%
Curr. Cash Flow Growth 5.89%
Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) -2.08%
Current Ratio 0.75
Debt/Capital 27.58%
Net Margin 1.90%
Return on Equity 8.37%
Sales/Assets 0.44
Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) 2.54%
Momentum Score
Daily Price Chg 2.17%
1 Week Price Chg 2.11%
4 Week Price Chg -8.58%
12 Week Price Chg -5.81%
52 Week Price Chg 14.48%
20 Day Average Volume 12,625,258
(F1) EPS Est Wkly Chg -0.12%
(F1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 1.28%
(F1) EPS Est Qtrly Chg 3.27%
(Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg -3.28%
X Industry S&P 500
1.93 B 34.55 B
2.5 18
0.00% 1.57%
- -
0.11 0.04
1.74 14.67
1.38 2.16
1.47 3.38
10.71 13.80
16.09 18.25
0.85 2.72
5.31% 5.45%
0.21 0.62
0.40 8.64
- -
-27.65% 9.87%
69.77% 7.34%
-15.72% 3.54%
2.10% 6.81%
1.16 1.22
27.58% 39.29%
-0.15% 11.99%
1.53% 16.63%
0.54 0.54
0.00% 3.93%
- -
0.33% 0.80%
0.00% -0.51%
-2.74% 2.92%
0.19% 3.00%
1.85% 23.24%
259,696 2,010,085
0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00%
0.82% 0.32%
0.00% -0.04%
PARA PARAA LSXMA
7.94 B 13.49 B 7.43 B
8 1 3
1.68% 0.97% 0.00%
A A A
0.30 0.18 NA
1.36 1.74 NA
0.36 NA 1.31
0.36 0.60 NA
0.50 0.87 NA
9.06 16.54 7.52
0.26 0.45 0.83
11.08% 6.05% 13.29%
0.65 0.65 NA
23.78 23.78 NA
A A D
-37.64% -37.64% NA
152.92% 140.38% 24.98%
-5.87% -5.87% NA
2.10% 2.10% NA
1.29 1.29 NA
39.54% 39.54% NA
-0.15% -0.15% NA
3.35% 3.35% NA
0.56 0.56 NA
3.34% 2.77% -1.46%
D C C
0.76% 0.19% 1.61%
-0.42% -0.82% 1.11%
-7.60% -7.81% -9.55%
8.97% 0.19% -24.01%
-22.66% 16.58% NA
12,814,904 55,755 1,169,089
-0.09% 0.00% 0.00%
-0.09% 0.00% 0.00%
11.99% -19.36% 0.82%
0.00% 0.00% 2.99%

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Value Score
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VGM Score

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