We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
The coming earnings reports from the big banks will highlight the multiple profitability headwinds facing the group. But sentiment on the group remains so weak that even modestly positive results and commentary could push these stocks higher.
For 2023 Q3, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be down -2.1% from the same period last year on +0.7% higher revenues, the 4th back-to-back quarter of declining earnings for the index.
Excluding the drag from the Energy sector, whose earnings are expected to decline -36.8% in Q3, earnings for the other 15 Zacks sectors in the S&P 500 index would be up +2.7% on +3.2% higher revenues.
Estimates for 2023 Q3 held up much better than had been the case in the comparable periods of other recent quarters. In fact, Q3 earnings estimates in the aggregate were barely down since the start of the period, with estimates modestly up when negative revisions to the Energy or Finance sector estimates are excluded.
To say that the setup for bank earnings remains unfavorable would be an understatement. You can clearly see this reality in the group’s recent stock market performance, which we show below in the year-to-date performance chart for JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Wells Faro (WFC - Free Report) , which are on deck to report Q3 results before the market’s open on Friday.
The chart also shows the Zacks Major Banks industry (red line, down -8.9%) and the S&P 500 index (orange line; up +14.5%).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see here, even JPMorgan, with its undisputed leadership status, is lagging the broader market, with the stocks of most of its peers in the red.
Net interest income, which banks make from their core banking business, will likely be modestly up relative to the same period last year for JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. But the outlook for this key profitability metric is weighed down by several headwinds, including a shifting mix in the deposit base and rising funding costs due to competitive dynamics following the turmoil in Spring caused by the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure.
Recent management commentary from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others suggests stabilization on the deposits front. But with loan growth slowing down, as a result of supply as well as demand factors, they will be dealing with a stagnant to down base of earning assets even as margins are under pressure.
Credit quality metrics still remain strong, a function of the resilient economy. But, the Q3 reports will likely show growing signs of stress at the lower end of the income distribution. The commercial real estate space remains a problem area for the group that will unfold over the coming many quarters, with the coming Q3 earnings reports only marginally adding to our understanding of the full extent of the issue.
Beyond the core banking business, there is plenty of talk of ‘green shoots’ and lengthening ‘deal pipelines.’ Still, the outlook for the investment banking business is a function of macro uncertainties, particularly the Fed and the economy.
The expectation is that Q3 investment banking revenues in the aggregate will be up sequentially but remain below the year-earlier level. Trading revenues will likely be a bright spot for some of the players in Q3, particularly in the fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) areas, but we will be heading into tougher comparisons in the coming quarters.
Given this earnings setup, it is no surprise that the overall trend on the estimate revisions front remains negative for the group, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that this chart shows the aggregate revisions trend for the Zacks Major Banks industry, and the estimate being tracked here is the forward 12-month EPS estimate. That said, the revisions trend for JPMorgan and Wells Fargo remains positive.
For the Zacks Major Banks industry, which includes both JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, total Q3 earnings are expected to decline -8.4% from the same period last year on +6.5% higher revenues. The table below shows the Zacks Major Banks industry and other mezzanine-level constituent industries in the Zacks Finance sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see here, Q3 earnings for the Zacks Finance sector are expected to be up +4.2% from the same period last year on +1.9% higher revenues.
The profitability headwinds facing the banks go some ways toward explaining the market’s weak sentiment on the group. On some key valuation metrics, the group is currently trading at levels not seen in the last 10 years, making one wonder if sentiment had drifted way too low.
Relative to the S&P 500 index, stocks in the Zacks Major Banks industry are currently trading at 47% of the broader index, just a hair above the 45% level in May 2023 and below the 48% in March 2020. The median over the last 10 years has been 63%, with a high of 79% and a low of 45%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With sentiment this weak, it wouldn’t take much for these stocks to jump on even modestly positive Q3 results and some favorable commentary about the coming periods.
The Earnings Big Picture
Looking at Q3 expectations as a whole, total S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down -2.1% from the same period last year on +0.7% higher revenues.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a quarterly basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook.
A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for that development either, as you can see in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Bank Earnings Loom: A Challenging Setup
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
To say that the setup for bank earnings remains unfavorable would be an understatement. You can clearly see this reality in the group’s recent stock market performance, which we show below in the year-to-date performance chart for JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Wells Faro (WFC - Free Report) , which are on deck to report Q3 results before the market’s open on Friday.
The chart also shows the Zacks Major Banks industry (red line, down -8.9%) and the S&P 500 index (orange line; up +14.5%).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see here, even JPMorgan, with its undisputed leadership status, is lagging the broader market, with the stocks of most of its peers in the red.
Net interest income, which banks make from their core banking business, will likely be modestly up relative to the same period last year for JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. But the outlook for this key profitability metric is weighed down by several headwinds, including a shifting mix in the deposit base and rising funding costs due to competitive dynamics following the turmoil in Spring caused by the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure.
Recent management commentary from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others suggests stabilization on the deposits front. But with loan growth slowing down, as a result of supply as well as demand factors, they will be dealing with a stagnant to down base of earning assets even as margins are under pressure.
Credit quality metrics still remain strong, a function of the resilient economy. But, the Q3 reports will likely show growing signs of stress at the lower end of the income distribution. The commercial real estate space remains a problem area for the group that will unfold over the coming many quarters, with the coming Q3 earnings reports only marginally adding to our understanding of the full extent of the issue.
Beyond the core banking business, there is plenty of talk of ‘green shoots’ and lengthening ‘deal pipelines.’ Still, the outlook for the investment banking business is a function of macro uncertainties, particularly the Fed and the economy.
The expectation is that Q3 investment banking revenues in the aggregate will be up sequentially but remain below the year-earlier level. Trading revenues will likely be a bright spot for some of the players in Q3, particularly in the fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) areas, but we will be heading into tougher comparisons in the coming quarters.
Given this earnings setup, it is no surprise that the overall trend on the estimate revisions front remains negative for the group, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that this chart shows the aggregate revisions trend for the Zacks Major Banks industry, and the estimate being tracked here is the forward 12-month EPS estimate. That said, the revisions trend for JPMorgan and Wells Fargo remains positive.
For the Zacks Major Banks industry, which includes both JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, total Q3 earnings are expected to decline -8.4% from the same period last year on +6.5% higher revenues. The table below shows the Zacks Major Banks industry and other mezzanine-level constituent industries in the Zacks Finance sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see here, Q3 earnings for the Zacks Finance sector are expected to be up +4.2% from the same period last year on +1.9% higher revenues.
The profitability headwinds facing the banks go some ways toward explaining the market’s weak sentiment on the group. On some key valuation metrics, the group is currently trading at levels not seen in the last 10 years, making one wonder if sentiment had drifted way too low.
Relative to the S&P 500 index, stocks in the Zacks Major Banks industry are currently trading at 47% of the broader index, just a hair above the 45% level in May 2023 and below the 48% in March 2020. The median over the last 10 years has been 63%, with a high of 79% and a low of 45%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With sentiment this weak, it wouldn’t take much for these stocks to jump on even modestly positive Q3 results and some favorable commentary about the coming periods.
The Earnings Big Picture
Looking at Q3 expectations as a whole, total S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down -2.1% from the same period last year on +0.7% higher revenues.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a quarterly basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook.
A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for that development either, as you can see in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.