Harley-Davidson (HOG) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

GPC HOG BWA ALSN

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 8, before the bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 41 cents on revenues of $643.17 million.

This iconic motorcycle manufacturer posted higher-than-expected earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-anticipated operating income from both Motorcycles & Related Products as well as Financial Services segments.

Harley-Davidson surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average negative surprise being 138.5%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Trend in Estimate Revisions   

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Harley-Davidson’s fourth-quarter loss per share has narrowed by 2 cents in the past 90 days. It also compares favorably with the year-earlier quarter’s loss of 63 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 34.9%. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year uptick of 21.1%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Harley-Davidson this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: Harley-Davidson has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is on par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Harley-Davidson currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Factors at Play

Harley-Davidson has been battling severe supply-chain disruption amid the global microchip shortage. Surging raw material prices have also been bothering the company. These factors are likely to have dented the iconic-motorcycle maker’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

In fact, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Motorcycles and Related Products segment, which constitute bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, is pegged at $650 million for the December-end quarter, suggesting a decrease from the $1,161 million reported in the prior quarter. Also, the consensus mark for operating income from the segment is pegged at a loss of $158 million, suggesting a deterioration from the profit of $98 million recorded in the previous quarter.

The consensus estimate for revenues from the Financial Services segment is pinned at $201 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a slight decline from the prior quarter’s $205 million. Also, the consensus metric for operating income from the segment is pegged at $79 million, suggesting a fall from the $107 million recorded in the previous quarter.

Further, elevated capital expenditure associated with product innovation and digital advancement is likely to strain the company’s margins further.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are a few stocks in the auto sector lined up to release quarterly results soon. Encouragingly, our model predicts earnings beats for these stocks:

BorgWarner (BWA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.92% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb 15.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 74 cents per share and $3.46 billion, respectively. Encouragingly, BWA surpassed earnings estimates in the preceding four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 30.9%.

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.45% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The company is set to announce quarterly figures on Feb 16.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allison’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 92 cents per share and $597.9 million, respectively. ALSN surpassed earnings estimates in three of the preceding four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.9%.

Genuine Parts (GPC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. It is scheduled to report earnings results on Feb 17. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Genuine Parts to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.60 per share and $4.66 billion, respectively. GPC surpassed earnings estimates in the preceding four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 15.9%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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