Can Diamondback (FANG) Follow Up Q4 Earnings Beat in Q1?

DVN APA MUSA FANG

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter results on May 2. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $4.89 per share on revenues of $1.9 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Permian-focused oil and gas producer’s performance in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Diamondback Energy’s previous-quarter results first.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last-reported quarter, this Midland, TX-based upstream player beat the consensus mark on higher-than-expected production. Diamondback Energy had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.63, comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.38. Revenues of $2 billion generated by the firm had also come in 23.3% above the consensus mark.

FANG topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 12.9% in the trailing four quarters. This is depicted in the graph below:

 

Factors to Consider

Diamondback Energy is expected to have benefited from the surge in oil and natural gas realizations. As a reflection of this price boost, the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter average sales price for crude and natural gas is pegged at $87 per barrel and $3.27 per thousand cubic feet, up significantly from a year earlier when the company had fetched $57 and $3.05. The year-over-year improvement in realizations has most likely buoyed Diamondback Energy’s revenues and cash flows.

Diamondback Energy is also expected to have benefited from higher production during the quarter. The company continues to churn out an impressive output from its assets in the resource-rich Permian Basin in West Texas. Consequently, the consensus mark for Diamondback Energy’s volume is pegged at 374.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), well above the prior-year quarter’s level of 307.4 MBOE/d.

On a somewhat bearish note, higher product costs and inflationary pressure are expected to have somewhat dented the company’s to-be-reported earnings. FANG’s lease operating expenses and production costs surged respectively 61.3% and 157.4% year over year in the fourth quarter. The upward cost trajectory is likely to have continued in the first quarter due to spurring labor and service outgo.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict that Diamondback is likely to beat first-quarter estimates. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.82%.

Zacks Rank: FANG currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Diamondback, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.28% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

For 2022, DVN has a projected earnings growth rate of 130.3%. Valued at around $37.1 billion, Devon Energy has surged around 150.6% in a year.

Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.49% and is Zacks #2 Ranked. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 3.

MUSA is valued at around $5.9 billion. The company topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 24.6% in the trailing four quarters. Murphy USA has gained around 65% in a year.

APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.60% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 4.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APA’s 2022 earnings has been revised 54.5% upward over the past 60 days. The company topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 13.4% in the trailing four quarters. APA has gained around 90.5% in a year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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