We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) to surpass expectations when VRTX reports first-quarter 2022 results on May 5, after the market closes.
Vertex’s bottom line surpassed expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 10%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX delivered an earnings surprise of 2.7%.
In the year so far, shares of Vertex have risen 24.4% against the industry’s 22.4% decline.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors to Consider
Revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven by a rapid uptake of Vertex’s newest cystic fibrosis (CF) medicine Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), a trend that most likely continued in the first quarter of 2022 as well.
A high level of treatment penetration among the pediatric patients (6-11 years of age) with the fast adoption of Trikafta is likely to have driven the drug’s sales in the United States in the March quarter. Besides, a continued uptake of Kaftrio in Europe coupled with the label expansion approval for pediatric patients might have driven the product’s international revenues.
Higher sales of Trikafta are likely to have caused sales erosion of Vertex’s other CF drugs and existing combinations, namely Kalydeco, Orkambi and Symdeko/Symkevi. VRTX secured reimbursement agreements for Trikafta/Kaftrio in more than 30 countries, including new markets of Australia and Spain.
Investors will also expect an update on Vertex’s non-CF pipeline on the first-quarter conference call. VRTX has a speedily advancing early-stage portfolio of medicines for addressing additional diseases beyond CF like pain, sickle cell disease, thalassemia, APOL1-mediated kidney diseases and diabetes. Several candidates are being developed to treat these indications using different mechanisms, such as gene-editing, mRNA and cell therapy.
In March, Vertex announced that it is moving VX-147, its first oral small molecule medicine for APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD), into pivotal development. The phase III study will evaluate what impact VX-147, in addition to the standard of care, has on kidney function and proteinuria in people with AMKD. If the interim data turns out to be positive, Vertex will seek accelerated approval for VX-147 in the United States to treat patients with AMKD.
In March this year, management also announced positive data from two phase II proof-of-concept (POC) studies evaluating its oral NaV1.8 inhibitor candidate VX-548 for the treatment of acute pain following abdominoplasty surgery or bunionectomy surgery.
Data from the studies showed that treatment with an initial 100 mg dose of VX-548 followed by a 50 mg dose every 12 hours led to a rapid, statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in the time-weighted Sum of Pain Intensity Difference over 48 hours as compared to placebo. This was the primary endpoint that the study achieved. Based on the success of the two POC studies and the following discussions with health regulators, Vertex plans to advance VX-548 into the pivotal development stage in second-half 2022.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Fortunately, that is the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.63 per share is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.60.
Zacks Rank: Vertex has a Zacks Rank #2, currently.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Angion Biomedica has an Earnings ESP of +15.71% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Angion Biomedica’s 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $2.38 to $1.79. The same for 2023 has narrowed from $2.95 to $2.19 in the past 30 days. Earnings of Angion Biomedica beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion, witnessing a negative surprise of 47.5%, on average.
Adicet Bio (ACET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +218.52% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Adicet Bio’s2022 loss per share have narrowed from $1.05 to $1.03. Earnings of Adicet Bio missed estimates in three of the last four quarters and beat the mark just once, witnessing a negative surprise of 13.3%, on average.
Novavax (NVAX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Novavax’s 2022 earnings per share have increased from $22.84 to $22.88. Earnings of Novavax missed estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a negative surprise of 182.5%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double"
From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.
It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time.
This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.
Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>
We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) to surpass expectations when VRTX reports first-quarter 2022 results on May 5, after the market closes.
Vertex’s bottom line surpassed expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 10%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX delivered an earnings surprise of 2.7%.
In the year so far, shares of Vertex have risen 24.4% against the industry’s 22.4% decline.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors to Consider
Revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven by a rapid uptake of Vertex’s newest cystic fibrosis (CF) medicine Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), a trend that most likely continued in the first quarter of 2022 as well.
A high level of treatment penetration among the pediatric patients (6-11 years of age) with the fast adoption of Trikafta is likely to have driven the drug’s sales in the United States in the March quarter. Besides, a continued uptake of Kaftrio in Europe coupled with the label expansion approval for pediatric patients might have driven the product’s international revenues.
Higher sales of Trikafta are likely to have caused sales erosion of Vertex’s other CF drugs and existing combinations, namely Kalydeco, Orkambi and Symdeko/Symkevi. VRTX secured reimbursement agreements for Trikafta/Kaftrio in more than 30 countries, including new markets of Australia and Spain.
Investors will also expect an update on Vertex’s non-CF pipeline on the first-quarter conference call. VRTX has a speedily advancing early-stage portfolio of medicines for addressing additional diseases beyond CF like pain, sickle cell disease, thalassemia, APOL1-mediated kidney diseases and diabetes. Several candidates are being developed to treat these indications using different mechanisms, such as gene-editing, mRNA and cell therapy.
In March, Vertex announced that it is moving VX-147, its first oral small molecule medicine for APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD), into pivotal development. The phase III study will evaluate what impact VX-147, in addition to the standard of care, has on kidney function and proteinuria in people with AMKD. If the interim data turns out to be positive, Vertex will seek accelerated approval for VX-147 in the United States to treat patients with AMKD.
In March this year, management also announced positive data from two phase II proof-of-concept (POC) studies evaluating its oral NaV1.8 inhibitor candidate VX-548 for the treatment of acute pain following abdominoplasty surgery or bunionectomy surgery.
Data from the studies showed that treatment with an initial 100 mg dose of VX-548 followed by a 50 mg dose every 12 hours led to a rapid, statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in the time-weighted Sum of Pain Intensity Difference over 48 hours as compared to placebo. This was the primary endpoint that the study achieved. Based on the success of the two POC studies and the following discussions with health regulators, Vertex plans to advance VX-548 into the pivotal development stage in second-half 2022.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Fortunately, that is the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.63 per share is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.60.
Zacks Rank: Vertex has a Zacks Rank #2, currently.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Angion Biomedica has an Earnings ESP of +15.71% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Angion Biomedica’s 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $2.38 to $1.79. The same for 2023 has narrowed from $2.95 to $2.19 in the past 30 days. Earnings of Angion Biomedica beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion, witnessing a negative surprise of 47.5%, on average.
Adicet Bio (ACET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +218.52% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Adicet Bio’s2022 loss per share have narrowed from $1.05 to $1.03. Earnings of Adicet Bio missed estimates in three of the last four quarters and beat the mark just once, witnessing a negative surprise of 13.3%, on average.
Novavax (NVAX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Novavax’s 2022 earnings per share have increased from $22.84 to $22.88. Earnings of Novavax missed estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a negative surprise of 182.5%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double"
From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.
It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time.
This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.
Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>
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