Will Higher Oil Price Propel Shell's (SHEL) Q1 Earnings?

WES CLMT HPK SHEL

Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter results on May 5. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $2.12 per share.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the integrated energy behemoth’s results in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at SHEL’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last-reported quarter, Europe’s largest oil company beat the consensus mark on higher commodity prices. SHEL had reported earnings per ADS (on a current cost of supplies basis, excluding items — the market’s preferred measure) — of $1.65, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40.

Shell beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings thrice in the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 1.3%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

 

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Shell is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: SHEL has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $2.12 per share each. Investors should know that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained the same in the past seven days.

Zacks Rank: Shell currently carries a Zacks Rank #1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for SHEL, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 16.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

For 2022, HPK has a projected earnings growth rate of 580.3%. Valued at around $2.6 billion, HighPeak Energy has increased around 191.6% in a year.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (CLMT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +31.53% and is Zacks #2 Ranked. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.

CLMT is valued at around $1.1 billion. For 2022, the partnership has a projected earnings growth rate of 70.3%. Calumet has gained around 142.2% in a year.

Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 10.

For 2022, WES has a projected earnings growth rate of 20.2%. Valued at around $9.8 billion, Western Midstream has increased around 32.4% in a year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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