Friday, October 14, 2022Retail Sales
for September help bring this impactful week in the markets to a close, coming in flat (0.0%) month over month, down from an upwardly revised +0.4% reported a month ago. Stripping out volatile motor vehicle sales in the month, this figure adds up to +0.1%, swinging from an upwardly revised -0.1% in August.
Digging a little further, ex-autos and gas, we see +0.3%, with the Control print (which finds its way further up the economic chain into other data) at +0.4%. This is likely the last month for the next quarter-year or so that won’t include holiday shopping season aspects, so results in a more “pure” read. And flat on Retail Sales for the month is a pretty good start in curbing inflation metrics on a wide scale. It’s also not yet registering the “pain” Fed Chair Jay Powell promised us.
We also saw a new September Import Price Index report out this morning, which came in at -1.2%, slightly deeper than the -1.1% we were expecting and the -1.1% downward revision the previous month. Our worst month for Import Prices this cycle was -1.5% back in July. Ex-petrol, this figure stands at -0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, +6.0%, while still relatively high, is well off the +7.8% we saw in August and the cycle-high +13% in March of this year.
Exports came in well below the expected -0.1% to -0.8% last month, with year-over-year coming in hotter than expected at +9.5%. Still frustratingly high, but markedly off the +10.7% for August and May’s high +18.6%. We can see things are mellowing out for imports and exports; a global trade situation cooling off is a good step in the right direction for curbing inflation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) posted a +5.4% beat on Q3 earnings this morning, $3.12 per share versus $2.96 expected. Revenues of $32.72 billion were +1.2% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares are up +1% in pre-market trading, but still down nearly -30% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) had arguably even a better quarter, with $1.30 per share taking out the $1.09 expected, for a +19.27% positive surprise (following the previous quarter’s earnings miss). Revenues of $19.51 billion easily surpassed the $18.72 billion expected, and swinging to positive year-over-year revenue growth, from an expected decline. Wells Fargo shares are up +3% on the news ahead of the opening bell. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also outperformed expectations this morning, albeit by thinner margins: $1.53 per share amounts to a 2-cent earnings beat, on revenues of $12.99 billion which actually missed the Zacks consensus by -1.16%. The investment bank’s shares are down -2.5% ahead of today’s open. For more on MS’ earnings, click here.
After the session gets started, we’ll get a fresh University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, complete with 5-year inflation expectations. Last time around, these came out +2.7%; it should be interesting to see where this number winds up today. Also Business Inventories report, and a winding-down of inventories overall will be another chunk of useful inflation data.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>
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Zacks Investment Research has just released an urgent special report to help you bank on this trend.
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Friday, October 14, 2022
Retail Sales
for September help bring this impactful week in the markets to a close, coming in flat (0.0%) month over month, down from an upwardly revised +0.4% reported a month ago. Stripping out volatile motor vehicle sales in the month, this figure adds up to +0.1%, swinging from an upwardly revised -0.1% in August.Digging a little further, ex-autos and gas, we see +0.3%, with the Control print (which finds its way further up the economic chain into other data) at +0.4%. This is likely the last month for the next quarter-year or so that won’t include holiday shopping season aspects, so results in a more “pure” read. And flat on Retail Sales for the month is a pretty good start in curbing inflation metrics on a wide scale. It’s also not yet registering the “pain” Fed Chair Jay Powell promised us.
We also saw a new September Import Price Index report out this morning, which came in at -1.2%, slightly deeper than the -1.1% we were expecting and the -1.1% downward revision the previous month. Our worst month for Import Prices this cycle was -1.5% back in July. Ex-petrol, this figure stands at -0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, +6.0%, while still relatively high, is well off the +7.8% we saw in August and the cycle-high +13% in March of this year.
Exports came in well below the expected -0.1% to -0.8% last month, with year-over-year coming in hotter than expected at +9.5%. Still frustratingly high, but markedly off the +10.7% for August and May’s high +18.6%. We can see things are mellowing out for imports and exports; a global trade situation cooling off is a good step in the right direction for curbing inflation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) posted a +5.4% beat on Q3 earnings this morning, $3.12 per share versus $2.96 expected. Revenues of $32.72 billion were +1.2% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares are up +1% in pre-market trading, but still down nearly -30% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) had arguably even a better quarter, with $1.30 per share taking out the $1.09 expected, for a +19.27% positive surprise (following the previous quarter’s earnings miss). Revenues of $19.51 billion easily surpassed the $18.72 billion expected, and swinging to positive year-over-year revenue growth, from an expected decline. Wells Fargo shares are up +3% on the news ahead of the opening bell. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also outperformed expectations this morning, albeit by thinner margins: $1.53 per share amounts to a 2-cent earnings beat, on revenues of $12.99 billion which actually missed the Zacks consensus by -1.16%. The investment bank’s shares are down -2.5% ahead of today’s open. For more on MS’ earnings, click here.
After the session gets started, we’ll get a fresh University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, complete with 5-year inflation expectations. Last time around, these came out +2.7%; it should be interesting to see where this number winds up today. Also Business Inventories report, and a winding-down of inventories overall will be another chunk of useful inflation data.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>
4 Oil Stocks with Massive Upsides
Global demand for oil is through the roof... and oil producers are struggling to keep up. So even though oil prices are well off their recent highs, you can expect big profits from the companies that supply the world with "black gold."
Zacks Investment Research has just released an urgent special report to help you bank on this trend.
In Oil Market on Fire, you'll discover 4 unexpected oil and gas stocks positioned for big gains in the coming weeks and months. You don't want to miss these recommendations.
Download your free report now to see them.
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