Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 25, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 28.36%.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing expectations in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.88%, on average.
Biogen’s stock has risen 9.5% this year so far compared with a decrease of 27.2% for the industry
Factors to Consider
Biogen’s sales in the third quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of Tecfidera and Spinraza.
Biogen’s multiple sclerosis revenues have been declining since the past few quarters. It is unlikely that MS sales have improved in the third quarter.
Among Biogen’s MS drugs, sales of Tecfidera are likely to have declined steeply, hurt by the launch of multiple generics products in the United States. Tecfidera generics are available in international markets such as Canada and Germany and may have been launched in other European markets in the third quarter. This is expected to have hurt ex-U.S sales from the drug.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $317 million and $322 million, respectively.
Sales of another MS drug, Tysabri are also likely to have declined in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for Tysabri are pegged at $512 million and $509.6 million, respectively.
Sales volumes of another MS drug Vumerity are likely to have increased driven by demand growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Vumerity is $147 million. In the second quarter, Biogen had said that due to contract manufacturing supply issues, it delayed any further country launches. It remains to be seen if the issue was resolved.
Biogen receives royalties on U.S. sales of Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) MS drug, Ocrevus, which is also expected to have contributed to the top line.
Roche’s Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) was approved for the treatment of relapsing MS (RMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS) in March 2017
Revenues from Biogen’s share of Roche’s drugs, Rituxan and Gazyva are also likely to have declined in the quarter due to biosimilar competition for Rituxan.
Increased competition in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, in the United States.
Outside the United States, sales of Spinraza might have been hurt due by competition and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Spinraza is $420 million.
Biogen is likely to have recorded only minimal sales from the new Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm, in the third quarter. After theCenters for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) denied all Medicare beneficiaries access to Aduhelm, in its final NCD decision, Biogen decided to substantially wind down commercial operations for Aduhelm, retaining only minimal resources to manage patients’ access programs.
Biosimilars revenues may have benefited from volume increase, which is likely to have been offset by pricing pressure and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of biosimilars is $203 million, while our estimate is $205.1 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is -0.34% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.15 per share is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.14 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.36% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Lilly’s stock has risen 19.1% this year so far. Lilly missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Lilly has a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.11%, on average. LLY is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 6.7% this year so far. AstraZeneca topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. AstraZeneca has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.88%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Free Report Reveals How You Could Profit from the Growing Electric Vehicle Industry
Globally, electric car sales continue their remarkable growth even after breaking records in 2021. High gas prices have fueled his demand, but so has evolving EV comfort, features and technology. So, the fervor for EVs will be around long after gas prices normalize. Not only are manufacturers seeing record-high profits, but producers of EV-related technology are raking in the dough as well. Do you know how to cash in? If not, we have the perfect report for you – and it’s FREE! Today, don't miss your chance to download Zacks' top 5 stocks for the electric vehicle revolution at no cost and with no obligation.
>>Send me my free report on the top 5 EV stocks<<
Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 25, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 28.36%.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing expectations in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.88%, on average.
Biogen’s stock has risen 9.5% this year so far compared with a decrease of 27.2% for the industry
Factors to Consider
Biogen’s sales in the third quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of Tecfidera and Spinraza.
Biogen’s multiple sclerosis revenues have been declining since the past few quarters. It is unlikely that MS sales have improved in the third quarter.
Among Biogen’s MS drugs, sales of Tecfidera are likely to have declined steeply, hurt by the launch of multiple generics products in the United States. Tecfidera generics are available in international markets such as Canada and Germany and may have been launched in other European markets in the third quarter. This is expected to have hurt ex-U.S sales from the drug.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $317 million and $322 million, respectively.
Sales of another MS drug, Tysabri are also likely to have declined in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for Tysabri are pegged at $512 million and $509.6 million, respectively.
Sales volumes of another MS drug Vumerity are likely to have increased driven by demand growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Vumerity is $147 million. In the second quarter, Biogen had said that due to contract manufacturing supply issues, it delayed any further country launches. It remains to be seen if the issue was resolved.
Biogen receives royalties on U.S. sales of Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) MS drug, Ocrevus, which is also expected to have contributed to the top line.
Roche’s Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) was approved for the treatment of relapsing MS (RMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS) in March 2017
Revenues from Biogen’s share of Roche’s drugs, Rituxan and Gazyva are also likely to have declined in the quarter due to biosimilar competition for Rituxan.
Increased competition in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, in the United States.
Outside the United States, sales of Spinraza might have been hurt due by competition and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Spinraza is $420 million.
Biogen is likely to have recorded only minimal sales from the new Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm, in the third quarter. After theCenters for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) denied all Medicare beneficiaries access to Aduhelm, in its final NCD decision, Biogen decided to substantially wind down commercial operations for Aduhelm, retaining only minimal resources to manage patients’ access programs.
Biosimilars revenues may have benefited from volume increase, which is likely to have been offset by pricing pressure and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of biosimilars is $203 million, while our estimate is $205.1 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is -0.34% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.15 per share is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.14 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.36% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Lilly’s stock has risen 19.1% this year so far. Lilly missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Lilly has a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.11%, on average. LLY is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has declined 6.7% this year so far. AstraZeneca topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. AstraZeneca has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.88%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Free Report Reveals How You Could Profit from the Growing Electric Vehicle Industry
Globally, electric car sales continue their remarkable growth even after breaking records in 2021. High gas prices have fueled his demand, but so has evolving EV comfort, features and technology. So, the fervor for EVs will be around long after gas prices normalize. Not only are manufacturers seeing record-high profits, but producers of EV-related technology are raking in the dough as well. Do you know how to cash in? If not, we have the perfect report for you – and it’s FREE! Today, don't miss your chance to download Zacks' top 5 stocks for the electric vehicle revolution at no cost and with no obligation.
>>Send me my free report on the top 5 EV stocks<<
Get the latest research report on AZN - FREE
Get the latest research report on BIIB - FREE
Get the latest research report on RHHBY - FREE
Get the latest research report on LLY - FREE