Can GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) Surprise in Q3 Earnings?

BMRN EXEL

GW Pharmaceuticals plc is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 4. Last quarter, the company had posted a positive surprise of 35.67%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.
 
Factors to Consider
 
GW Pharma’s key growth driver is Sativex, which is approved outside the U.S. for the treatment of spasticity associated with multiple sclerosis. The company is also evaluating Sativex in a phase II study in children with spasticity due to cerebral palsy. Data from the study should be out in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016.
 
GW Pharma has made significant progress with its lead pipeline candidate, Epidiolex (cannabidiol). Toward the end of the quarter, GW Pharma announced positive data from the first phase III study on Epidiolex, for the treatment of Lennox-Gastaut syndrome. Top-line data from the second study should be out shortly.
 
Earlier this year, the company had reported positive data from the first phase III study on Epidiolex for the treatment of Dravet syndrome. The company continues to enrol in the second phase III study. Backed by favorable phase III study results, the company plans to seek FDA approval for Epidiolex in the first half of fiscal 2017.
 
During the quarter, the company commenced a phase III study on Epidiolex as an adjunctive therapy for the treatment of seizures associated with tuberous sclerosis complex. Meanwhile, the company has selected infantile spasms as the fourth target indication for the development of Epidiolex. The company expects to initiate a two-part pivotal phase III study in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016.
 
Investor focus is expected to remain on the company’s performance along with pipeline updates.

Surprise History

GW Pharma’s track record has been pretty good with the company reporting narrower-than-expected losses in three of the last four reported quarters. Overall, the company has delivered a positive surprise of 21.45%.

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