Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter results on May 1. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $4.09 per share on revenues of $4.9 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the downstream operator’s results in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MUSA’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the El Dorado, AR-based motor fuel retailer beat the consensus mark on the back of higher fuel margins and robust merchandise sales. MUSA had reported earnings per share of $7, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.31. However, revenues of $5.1 billion generated by the firm came below the consensus mark by $291 million due to a fall in the retail gasoline price.
MUSA beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 13.6%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Factors to Consider
Murphy USA is expected to have been buoyed by a drop in total expenses. The company’s fourth-quarter total cost of goods sold fell to $4.5 billion from $4.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2023. With operating efficiency and cost-discipline initiatives, the favorable story is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter despite the sticky inflation. As a reflection of this, our model projection for first-quarter total expense stands at $4.4 billion, suggesting a drop of 4.1% from the year-ago period.
However, the positive factor is likely to have been neutralized by lower petroleum product sales during the quarter. Our model projects the company’s first-quarter petroleum product sales at $3.9 billion, down 2.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level of $4 billion. Further, our model predicts MUSA to clock merchandise sales of $895.6 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $966.2 million. This sales drop is likely to have dragged down the first-quarter revenues and cash flows of Murphy USA.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Murphy USA is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.53%.
Zacks Rank: MUSA currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Murphy USA, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.85% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ConocoPhillips beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 8.5%, on average. Valued at around $153.2 billion, COP has gone up 27% in a year.
EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG Resources indicates 5.2% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $78.1 billion, EOG has gained 14.4% in a year.
TC Energy Corporation (TRP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 3.
TC Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, missed once and met in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 7.1%, on average. Valued at around $36.1 billion, TRP has lost 13.2% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter results on May 1. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $4.09 per share on revenues of $4.9 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the downstream operator’s results in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MUSA’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the El Dorado, AR-based motor fuel retailer beat the consensus mark on the back of higher fuel margins and robust merchandise sales. MUSA had reported earnings per share of $7, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.31. However, revenues of $5.1 billion generated by the firm came below the consensus mark by $291 million due to a fall in the retail gasoline price.
MUSA beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 13.6%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Factors to Consider
Murphy USA is expected to have been buoyed by a drop in total expenses. The company’s fourth-quarter total cost of goods sold fell to $4.5 billion from $4.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2023. With operating efficiency and cost-discipline initiatives, the favorable story is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter despite the sticky inflation. As a reflection of this, our model projection for first-quarter total expense stands at $4.4 billion, suggesting a drop of 4.1% from the year-ago period.
However, the positive factor is likely to have been neutralized by lower petroleum product sales during the quarter. Our model projects the company’s first-quarter petroleum product sales at $3.9 billion, down 2.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level of $4 billion. Further, our model predicts MUSA to clock merchandise sales of $895.6 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $966.2 million. This sales drop is likely to have dragged down the first-quarter revenues and cash flows of Murphy USA.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Murphy USA is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.53%.
Zacks Rank: MUSA currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Murphy USA, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.85% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ConocoPhillips beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 8.5%, on average. Valued at around $153.2 billion, COP has gone up 27% in a year.
EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG Resources indicates 5.2% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $78.1 billion, EOG has gained 14.4% in a year.
TC Energy Corporation (TRP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 3.
TC Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, missed once and met in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 7.1%, on average. Valued at around $36.1 billion, TRP has lost 13.2% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells
We're not kidding.
Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.
Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 228 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2023 alone.
See Stocks Now >>
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