Whole Foods (WFM) Q4 Earnings: Will the Stock Disappoint?

BIG HZO

Whole Foods Market, Inc. is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Nov 2. The big question facing investors is, whether this retailer of natural and organic foods will be able to post a positive earnings surprise in the quarter to be reported. The company’s past performance reveals that it reported in-line earnings in the third quarter and outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the second and first quarters of fiscal 2016 by 7.3% and 15%, respectively. Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Zacks Model Shows Unlikely Earnings Beat

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Whole Foods is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP for this to happen. Please check our Earnings ESP Filter that enables you to find stocks that are expected to come out with earnings surprises.

Whole Foods has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at 24 cents. Moreover, the company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Whole Foods is revamping its pricing strategy and concentrating on value offerings. Moreover, it has come out with a new store concept targeting millennials and to stave off competition. Analysts pointed out that increasing competition and aggressive pricing may put pressure on Whole Foods’ quarterly performance as more and more companies are entering as well as expanding their presence in the Organic & Natural food business. Management had earlier projected comparable sales decline of 2.4% in the fourth quarter and envisioned earnings per share in the band of 23-24 cents.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Avon Products Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Marinemax Inc. (HZO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Big Lots Inc. (BIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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