Caterpillar (CAT) Q4 Earnings: Another Beat in the Cards?

CAT DE AGCO IR

The earnings release of Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT - Free Report) is scheduled to be announced before the opening bell on Jan 26. It is a much-awaited event as the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment is often considered an economic bellwether. Caterpillar’s results in the past few quarters, reflects a weak mining industry, low oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and China's economic woes. Notably, the company’s adjusted earnings plunged 19% to 85 cents per share in the last quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model shows that Caterpillar is likely to beat earnings in the to-be-reported quarter because it has the right combination of two key ingredients – a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings.

Zacks ESP: Caterpillar’s Earnings ESP is +1.54% as the Most Accurate estimate of 66 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents. A positive ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Caterpillar carries a Zacks Rank #3. The combination of the company’s favorable Zacks Rank with a positive ESP makes us confident of an earnings beat.

Notably, the stocks having a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Surprise History

In the last quarter, Caterpillar’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.33%. Going by the earnings surprise history, Caterpillar beat estimates in the last four quarters, leading to an overall positive average surprise of 8.53%.

 

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