Cinemark Holdings (CNK) Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2017 results on May 3, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 48.84%. Moreover, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the previous four quarters, with an average beat of 14.90%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Headquartered in Plano, TX, Cinemark Holdings is a leading motion picture exhibition company which operated 526 theatres with 5,903 screens in 38 states in the U.S. and internationally in 12 countries, mainly in Mexico, South and Central America, as of Dec 31, 2016.

Of late, Cinemark Holdings has been opening and renovating theatres with state-of-the-art amenities. The company’s recent promotional plans of upgrading its Connections Loyalty Program free for members of Cinemark XD auditoriums bodes well. We believe such renovations and attractive promotional offers should help the company witness substantial subscriber growth in the to-be reported quarter.

We are impressed with Cinemark Holdings’ efforts to reward its stockholders with a 7.4% hike in its cash dividend to $1.16 per share of common stock on an annualized basis. The dividend of 29 cents per share was paid on Mar 20, 2017 to stockholders of record on Mar 8, 2017.

Over the past three months, shares of Cinemark Holdings returned 2.6% but failed to beat the Zacks sub-categorized Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s growth of 7.8%.

However, Cinemark continues to face threats from alternative movie streaming services such as Netflix, Inc. (NFLX - Free Report) , and Time Warner Inc.’s HBO Now and Hulu. While theater chains remain the preferred choice for film studios, the recent trend of movie watchers opting for streaming services is making film studios seek better terms in box-office revenues with large-screen theater companies. This might hamper profitability. The company also competes with AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC - Free Report) a leisure and recreation services company in its same field.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Cinemark Holdings is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Cinemark Holdings has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 61 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cinemark Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Key Pick

Here is a company from the Zacks-categorized broader Consumer Discretionarysector — which housesCinemark Holdings— that has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2017 results on May 4. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AMC Networks’ earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate only in the last reported quarter.

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