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Why Is F.N.B. (FNB) Up 10.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for F.N.B. (FNB - Free Report) . Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is F.N.B. due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

F.N.B. Corp Q1 Earnings Beat, Provisions Decline Y/Y

F.N.B. Corporation’s first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 34 cents outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the bottom line reflects a decline of 15% from the prior-year quarter.

The results were primarily aided by a decline in provisions and higher non-interest income. However, lower NII, a fall in average loans and deposits balance and an increase in expenses were the undermining factors.

After considering significant items, net income available to common stockholders was $116.3 million, down 19.5% year over year. Our estimate for the metric was $115 million.

Revenues Decline, Expenses Rise

Quarterly net revenues were $406.9 million, down 2.2% from the year-earlier quarter. The top line marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $406.3 million.

NII was $319 million, down 5.3%. The fall was mainly due to higher deposit costs, partly offset by growth in earning assets and higher earning asset yields. Our estimate for NII was pegged at $322.1 million.

NIM (FTE basis) (non-GAAP) contracted 38 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.18%.

Non-interest income was $87.9 million, up 10.7%. The improvement was driven by a rise in all fee income components except insurance commissions and fees and capital markets income. Further, the absence of net securities loss offered support. Our estimate for the metric was $81.2 million.

Non-interest expenses were $237.1 million, up 7.8% year over year. Our estimate for the same was $229.7 million. After excluding significant items impacting earnings, adjusted expenses rose 7.5% to $234.1 million.

As of Mar 31, 2024, common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 10.2% compared with 10% in the prior-year quarter.

At the end of the first quarter, average loans and leases were $32.4 billion, up marginally on a sequential basis. Average deposits totaled $34.2 billion, down slightly.

Credit Quality Improves

F.N.B. Corp’s provision for credit losses was $13.9 million, down 1.4% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for provisions was $24.4 million.

The ratio of non-performing loans and other real estate owned (OREO) to total loans and OREO decreased 5 bps to 0.33%. Also, net charge-offs to total average loans were 0.16%, down 2 bps.

On the other hand, total delinquency increased 4 bps to 0.64%.

Outlook

Second -Quarter 2024

Management expects NII in the range of $315-$325 million.

Non-interest income is anticipated to be around $80- $85 million and is likely to benefit from the diversified fee-based income strategy.

Non-interest expenses are expected to be in the range of $220-$230 million.

2024

The company expects spot loans to grow in the mid-single-digit range. Total spot deposits are expected to grow in low single digits.

NII is expected between $1.295 billion and $1.345 billion on the assumption of two 25 bps rate cuts occurring in the latter part of 2024. The company anticipates NII to be in the lower half of the target range.

Non-interest income is expected to grow in the range of $325-$345 billion from $275.7 billion in 2023. Management expects to touch the upper half of the range given the solid first-quarter 2024 performance.

Non-interest expenses are projected between $895 million and $915 million, including the impact of approximately $6 million of rent expense.

 



Provision for credit losses is expected to rise in the range of $80-$100 million to support loan growth from $71.8 million in 2023.

The effective tax rate is expected in the band of 21-22%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, F.N.B. has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, F.N.B. has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

F.N.B. belongs to the Zacks Banks - Southeast industry. Another stock from the same industry, Hancock Whitney (HWC - Free Report) , has gained 12.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2024.

Hancock Whitney reported revenues of $354.02 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -3.1%. EPS of $1.28 for the same period compares with $1.45 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Hancock Whitney is expected to post earnings of $1.20 per share, indicating a change of -11.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Hancock Whitney. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.


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