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5 Bullish Expectations for the New Administration

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The first year after an election is typically a big positive for the equity markets. When Donald Trump took office in 2017, the S&P rallied just under 20%. And when Obama took office in 2009 during the financial crisis, a rough start to the year ended in 20% gains.

So, is there another 20% year ahead?

January started out hot, with a 3% gain in a matter of a couple weeks and new highs in the S&P 500. However, for continuation higher we will need to see some investor expectations realized.

The year following an election can be left with uncertainty and doubt if a new president’s policies aren’t clear. Market performance can be dependent on a new administration’s actions and investors should be aware of what to expect.

President Biden has been pretty clear in what policies he will be trying to put in place. Let’s go over five expectations that investors should consider of President Biden and the market as a whole. 

1) Policy Will Boost Specific Sectors

There are three main areas I would focus on in regards to policy. Let’s take a look:

First, Biden promises to make historic investments in manufacturing, R&D and clean energy. As this money goes to work investors should target the stocks that will be receiving contracts to fulfill Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan.

Second, Biden’s goal to fight climate change will incentivize money to flow into clean energy projects. The President has already signed an executive order that brought the United States back into the Paris Climate Agreement, which will commit the country to reduce carbon emissions. Investors should ride this idea by focusing on solar, wind and electric vehicles to take advantage.

Finally, and perhaps the wild card of all the sectors, the potential for legalization of marijuana could be a major tailwind for the cannabis industry. Pot stocks should be a target for investors if legislation for legalization is introduced to the Democratic controlled Congress.

Continue reading . . .

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2) Stimulus is Coming 

Stimulus will likely be passed soon; it’s just a matter of the details being ironed out. The more stimulus the better when it comes to the markets, as the massive amount of money being handed out will be a boon for the overall economy. Investors should expect an almost $2 trillion relief package in the first quarter. Additionally, the back half of the year could lead to an equally sizable package that focuses on American infrastructure.

The upcoming stimulus would involve direct payments that will put money into pockets and eventually into the stock market. Other components of the package include the following: more money for unemployment, child tax credit, $15 minimum wage, funds for local governments, and possible student loan forgiveness. All of these components are tailwinds for economic activity and healthy markets.

3) No Hawks at the Fed

Easy money will remain as the Fed has no intention of raising interest rates for the foreseeable future. Until the pandemic ends and employment levels are of satisfaction, the Fed will keep interest rates low and quantitative easing will be in full gear.

Tapering will only come with inflation getting out of control. For now, the data suggests that hot inflation numbers are still a way off. So, for the foreseeable future, the Fed will have an accommodative policy that some are saying might help start another Roaring Twenties.

4) Post-COVID Economic Surge 

Pent-up demand will be expected in the back half of the year. Expectations are that this summer will see an inoculated population that will force COVID rates to drop severely. This will create a scenario that will get people back in the office, out of the house, into restaurants, enjoying stadiums and of course, spending money.

What people spend money on is what investors should be speculating.

5) Euphoria

Let’s face it, 2021 has already been an interesting year. Stocks like GameStop and AMC have seen runs that would make Bitcoin traders envious. With all the stimulus coming and checks being sent directly to Americans, we should expect the stock market euphoria to last throughout the year.

Expect Significant Profit Opportunities 

There are specific industries and sectors that have already started breaking higher since the election. Finding the right stocks within these sectors will be the key to successful investing in 2021.

With stimulus coming, the opportunity is now. Its time to get in before the crowd and the euphoria intensify.

President Biden has clearly communicated the major initiatives his White House will focus on. His plans will shift trillions of dollars around the economy – and certain industries and stocks will thrive.

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Just before Election Day, I predicted a handful of trades would spike higher if Biden won. Those recommendations climbed as much as +21.5%, +70.2%, even +74.5% between the election and the inauguration.¹ I believe the stocks in my new report will climb even higher.

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Good Investing,

Jeremy Mullin
Stock Strategist

Jeremy Mullin has been a professional trader for more than 15 years with specific expertise in profiting from patterns set by High-Frequency Traders. He is the editor of Zacks Counterstrike.

¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position.

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