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AAR (AIR) Down 12.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for AAR (AIR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AAR due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

AAR Corp's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Rise Y/Y

AAR Corp. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings of 47 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents by 6.8%. The figure reflected a year-over-year surge of 80.8% from earnings of 26 cents registered in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding one-time items, the company reported earnings of 42 cents per share from continuing operations against a loss of 43 cents reported in fourth-quarter fiscal 2020.

AAR Corp’s adjusted earnings for fiscal 2021 came in at $1.30 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Total Sales

In the quarter under review, net sales totaled $437.6 million. The reported figure outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $421 million by 3.8% and by 5.1% from $416.5 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

The year-over-year rise in sales was due to the recovery in the commercial market from the impacts of COVID-19 and continued strong performance across its global government contracts.

However, AAR Corp’s full-year sales came to $1.65 billion, down 20.1% from $2.07 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

Segment Details

In the fiscal fourth quarter, sales at the Aviation Services segment summed $415.4 million, up 6.5% year over year.

Expeditionary Services recorded sales of $22.2 million, down 15.9% from $26.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

Highlights of the Release

AAR Corp’s cost of sales in the reported quarter fell 3.8% year over year to $365.8 million.

Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 3.2% to $48.8 million.

The company incurred interest expenses of $0.9 million compared with $2.6 million in fourth-quarter fiscal 2020.

Financial Condition

As of May 31, 2021, AAR Corp’s cash and cash equivalents amounted to $51.8 million compared with $404.7 million as of May 31, 2020.

As of May 31, 2021, net property, plant and equipment expenses totaled $120 million compared with $135.7 million as of May 31, 2020.

As of May 31, 2021, long-term debt decreased to $133.7 million from $600 million as of May 31, 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, AAR has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. It comes with little surprise AAR has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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