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Marriott (MAR) Down 2.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott International (MAR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Marriott Q2 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates, Rise Y/Y

Marriott reported solid second-quarter 2021 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as increasing on a year-over-year basis.

The company reported resurgence of lodging demand in Mainland China with leisure, business transient and group room bookings ahead of 2019 levels. Also, solid leisure demand was reported in the U.S. and Canada region. As more people are getting back to workplace, the company is optimistic regarding the upward trajectory of the global recovery.

Earnings & Revenues Discussion

In the quarter under review, Marriott’s adjusted earnings per share were 79 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported adjusted loss of 57 cents per share.

Quarterly revenues of $3,149 million surpassed the consensus mark of $3,014 million. Moreover, the top line surged 115.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the quarter, revenues from Base management and Franchise fee came in at $156 million and $431 million compared with $40 million and $182 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

RevPAR & Margins

In the quarter under review, revenue per available room (RevPAR) for worldwide comparable system-wide properties fell 43.8% (in constant dollars) compared with 2019 levels. The decline was primarily driven by a fall in in occupancy and average daily rate (ADR). Notably, occupancy and ADR declined 24.1% and 17.2%, respectively, from 2019 levels. These metrics were impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Comparable system-wide RevPAR in Asia Pacific (excluding China) fell 69% (in constant dollars) from 2019 levels. Notably, occupancy and ADR had fallen 39.9% and 28.2%, respectively, from 2019 levels. Comparable system-wide RevPAR in Greater China fell 16.9% from 2019 levels.

On a constant-dollar basis, international comparable system-wide RevPAR fell 55.6% compared with 2019 levels. Notably, occupancy and ADR had fallen 30.8% and 20%, respectively, from 2019 levels. Moreover, comparable system-wide RevPAR in Europe as well as Caribbean & Latin America declined 77.4% and 38.7%, respectively, from 2019 levels.

Total expenses during the quarter increased 64.6% year over year to $2,663 million, primarily due to a rise in Reimbursed expenses.

During the second quarter, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) amounted to $558 million compared with $61 million in the prior-year quarter.

Balance sheet

At the end of the second quarter, Marriott's total debt amounted to $9.5 billion compared with $9.6 billion in the previous quarter. The company’s net liquidity at the end of quarter was nearly $4.7 billion.

Unit Developments

At the end of second-quarter 2021, Marriott's development pipeline totaled nearly 2,750 hotels, with approximately 478,000 rooms. Further, nearly 212,000 rooms were under construction.

During the quarter, the company added 149 new properties (24,909 rooms) to its worldwide lodging portfolio.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted 33.14% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marriott has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Marriott has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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