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Why Is Tesla (TSLA) Down 29.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 29.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tesla due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tesla's Blockbuster Q1 Earnings Show

Tesla reported first-quarter 2022 earnings of $3.22 a share, growing significantly from the year-ago figure of 93 cents and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15. This marked the fifth straight earnings beat for the company.

Higher-than-expected deliveries and automotive gross profit resulted in this outperformance. Total first-quarter 2022 deliveries of 310,048 units topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 298,495. Automotive gross profit came in at $5,539 million, which outpaced the consensus mark of $4,113 million. Also, revenues from automotive regulatory credits totaled $679 million, breezing past the consensus mark of $301 million and rising 31% on a year-over-year basis.

Total revenues came in at $18,756 million, beating the consensus mark of $17,276 million. The top line also witnessed year-over-year growth of 80.5%. Importantly, the EV giant reported an automotive gross margin of 32.9% and overall gross margin of 29.1% for the quarter. Further, operating margin came in at 19.2%.

Key Takeaways

Production and delivery totaled 305,407 and 310,048 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year jump of 69% and 68%, respectively. First-quarter 2022 marked the seventh consecutive quarter of ground-breaking deliveries by the world's most valuable automaker. The Model 3/Y registered production and deliveries of 291,189 and 295,324 vehicles, marking year-over-year growth of 61% and 62%, respectively. Production and delivery of the Model S/X totaled 14,218 and 14,724 units, respectively, for the quarter under review.

Total automotive revenues of $16,861 topped the consensus mark of $15,080 million and surged 87% year over year. The figure also included $679 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which rose 31% year over year. Automotive gross margin came in at 32.9%, expanding 636 basis points from first-quarter 2021.

Energy generation and storage revenues came in at $616 million for first-quarter 2022 compared with the year-ago period’s $494 million. Services and other revenues were up 43.2% year over year to $1,279 million.

Operating expenses totaled $1,857 million for the reported quarter, up from $1,621 million incurred in the corresponding period of 2021.

Financials

Tesla had cash and cash equivalents of $17,505 million as of Mar 31, 2022 compared with $17,576 million on Dec 31, 2021. Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $3,995 million for first-quarter 2022, up 143.4% year on year. Its capital expenditure totaled $1,767 million, up from the $1,348 million recorded in first-quarter 2021.

Tesla generated free cash flow of $2,228 million during the quarter, up a whopping 660% year on year. Long-term debt and finance leases — net of current portion on Dec 31, 2021 — totaled $3,153 million, down from $5,245 million on Dec 31, 2021.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 25.66% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Tesla has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Tesla has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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