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Viper Energy (VNOM) Down 8.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Viper Energy Partners (VNOM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Viper Energy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Viper Energy Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates

Viper Energy reported third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per unit of 98 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. The bottom line significantly improved from the year-ago quarter’s profit of 21 cents per share.

The partnership, with mineral interests in North America oil and gas resources, generated an operating income of $222 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $214 million. The top line increased from the year-ago quarter’s $128 million.

Viper Energy’s strong quarterly results were aided by higher oil-equivalent production and prices.

Production

The resources, wherein the partnership has mineral interests, produced 3,173 thousand oil-equivalent barrels (MBoe) in the September quarter of 2022, up from 2,541 MBoe a year ago. Of the total volume, oil contributed 57.6%. The production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids increased from the prior-year quarter.

Realized Prices

Overall average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was recorded at $69.31 compared with $50.24 in third-quarter 2021. Average realized oil prices in the quarter under review were $91.87 per barrel, up from $67.67 a year ago. The price of natural gas was $7.01 per thousand cubic feet, up from $3.61 in the year-ago quarter. The same for natural gas liquids was $35.15 a barrel, up from $30.66.

Costs & Expenses

In third-quarter 2022, total expenses amounted to $48.2 million compared with $35.7 million in the prior-year quarter. On a per barrel of oil equivalent (Boe) basis, total operating expenses were recorded at $5.49 compared with $3.98 in the year-ago quarter.

Cash Flow

Net cash from operating activities was recorded at $214.2 million, up from $69.9 million in the third quarter of 2021.

Balance Sheet

As of Sep 30, 2022, Viper Energy’s cash and cash equivalents were $11.6 million. It reported net long-term debt of $669.6 million.

Guidance

For the fourth and first quarters, Viper Energy expects its production in the range of 33,250 to 35,000 Boe/d. For 2022, the partnership is projecting its production in the band of 33,250 to 33,750 Boe/d.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -19.92% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Viper Energy has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Viper Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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