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Will Solid Segment Sales Growth Aid Northrop's (NOC) Q1 Earnings?

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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25, before market open.

Northrop delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.64%. The strong revenue performance across all its segments is likely to have contributed to the company’s earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. However, B-21 program related charges might have partially weighed on the bottom line.

Aeronautics Systems to Boost the Top Line

Higher sales volumes from restricted programs, along with that from the F-35, B-21 and E-2D programs, are likely to have boosted the first-quarter revenue performance of the Aeronautics Systems segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,631.6 million, indicating a rise of 4.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Defense Systems Holds Potential

Higher volumes from the missile defense and weapons programs, like the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM), are likely to have aided the Defense unit’s revenue performance in the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Defense Systems’ revenues is pegged at $1,439.3 million, indicating an increase of 4.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Mission Systems to Remain Solid

Higher sales volume from the advanced microelectronics program as well as the marine systems program is expected to have favorably impacted Mission Systems’ revenue performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mission System’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,667.5 million, indicating growth of 4.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported actuals.

Space Systems – Another Contributor to Revenues

The Space System segment’s revenues are likely to have been positively impacted by higher volumes from development programs like the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, the Next Generation Interceptor, as well as the Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Polar (NextGen Polar) programs.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Space System’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $3,575.9 million, implying an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Backlog Projections Show Strength

Our model estimates NOC’s first-quarter backlog to improve 10.4% year over year to $85.55 billion. This indicates strength in its business operations that fuels the demand for its products.

Q1 Estimates

With all four of NOC’s segments likely to report a year-over-year improvement in sales, one can be optimistic about the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, the strong backlog of Northrop witnessed in prior quarters, backed by the rising global defense budget, might have added an impetus to its first-quarter revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales is pegged at $9.78 billion, indicating an increase of 5.2% from the prior-year reported figure.

A top-line improvement, along with solid segment operating margin, is likely to have aided the overall earnings of Northrop. However, charges related to the low rate initial production portion of the B-21 program might have had some adverse impacts on the company’s bottom line in the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its first-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.83 per share, implying an improvement of 6% from the prior-year reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Northrop this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Northrop has an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Below are three other defense stocks that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter results on May 2. HII has an Earnings ESP of +1.39% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Huntington Ingalls delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 20.64%. The consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.49 per share, while that for sales is pinned at $2.80 billion.

Leidos Holdings (LDOS - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 30. LDOS has an Earnings ESP of +1.86% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Leidos delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 11.85%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LDOS’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.65 per share, while that for sales is pinned at $3.80 billion.

CurtissWright (CW - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter results on May 1. CW has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

CW delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.71%. The consensus mark for CW’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.75 per share, while that for sales is pinned at $665 million.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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