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Vertex (VRTX) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2022 results on May 1, after the market closes. In the last reported quarter, VRTX delivered a positive earnings surprise of 6.52%.

This large-cap biotech’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters but missing the mark in one. Vertex has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.11%, on average.

 

In the year so far, shares of Vertex have risen 14.0% against the industry’s 4.0% decline.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

Vertex’s revenue growth in first-quarter 2023 is likely to have been driven by a rapid uptake of its blockbuster cystic fibrosis (CF) medicine Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe). The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Trikafta sales are pegged at $2.05 billion and $2.04 billion, respectively.

Trikafta’s sales in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven bystrong uptakes in international markets and increased drug adoption in the United States among pediatric patients (6-11 years of age). Higher Trikafta sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of Vertex’s other CF drugs and existing combinations, namely Kalydeco, Orkambi and Symdeko/Symkevi.

Last December, the FDA accepted the company’s IND applicationseeking to start clinical studies on VX-522, an investigational mRNA-based therapy for CF indication. With this therapy, management intends to target a patient populationwho still cannot benefit from its four marketed CF medicines. Investors will likely seek updates on the phase I study on VX-522, which was expected to start early this year. VX-522 is being developed in collaboration with Moderna.

Investors will also expect an update on Vertex’s non-CF pipeline during first-quarter conference call.

As part of its collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - Free Report) , Vertex developed exagamglogene autotemcel (“exa-cel”), an investigational ex-vivo CRISPR gene-edited therapy for two indications, namely sickle cell disease (“SCD”) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (“TDT”).Vertex expects exa-cel to be its next commercial launch.

Earlier this month, Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics announced the completion of the rolling biologics license application (BLA) submission to the FDA seeking approval for exa-cel in SCD and TDT indications. CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex have also filed similar regulatory submissions for exa-cel in Europe, which were validated this January.

Last month, Vertex signed a new non-exclusive licensing agreement with CRISPR Therapeutics for the use of the latter’s gene-editing technology to accelerate the development of its hypoimmune cell therapies for type I diabetes (T1D). Per the terms of the agreement, Vertex is liable to pay CRISPR an upfront amount of $100 million for the non-exclusive rights to the latter’s technology for the development of hypoimmune gene-edited cell therapies for T1D. CRISPR Therapeutics is also entitled to additional payments of up to $230 million in research and development milestones and receive royalties on any future products resulting from this agreement.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of -0.54% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.93 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95.

Zacks Rank: Vertex has a Zacks Rank #3, currently. You can the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the overall healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Amarin Corporation (AMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Amarin’s stock has surged 12.4% in the year-to-date period. Amarin beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. Amarin has delivered a negative earnings surprise of 14.29%, on average. The company will report its first-quarter results on May 3, before the opening bell.

2seventy bio (TSVT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank #3.

In the year so far, 2seventy bio’s shares have declined 8.9%. 2seventy bio beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. 2seventy bio has delivered a negative earnings surprise of 5.62%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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