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Pre-market futures are in the green at this hour, only minutes past the big economic releases this morning — including Q1 earnings from some of the biggest banks on Wall Street. This follows a nice up-day in Monday’s session, with fingers crossed for a peace deal in Iran. The Dow is currently hanging onto +27 points (+0.05%), the S&P 500 is +18 (+0.26%), the Nasdaq +126 (+0.50%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 +19 points (+0.72%).
PPI for March: Steady Near-Term, Up Year over Year
The numbers for the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) — the wholesale side of inflation metrics — survey are out this morning, with something of a mixed bag. Headline month over month came in much lower than expected: +0.5% versus +1.1% estimated, and in-line with the downwardly revised +0.5% for February. Core PPI reached just +0.1%, the lowest monthly print since last summer, and down from the lower-revised +0.3% in the prior month.
Year over year is a different story: +4.0% on headline is a big jump of +60 basis points (bps) month over month on final demand. Subtract important food and energy prices, and the core PPI year over year only drops 20 bps to +3.8%, in-line with the previous month, but this remains the highest level in the past 12 months. Headline PPI hasn’t been at +4% since February of 2023 — three years ago, when numbers were moving in the opposite direction.
Reduce these figures further by removing costs of trade, and we see another drop from expectations month over month: +0.2% on ex-food, energy and trade, compared with +0.4% expected, equalling the low we saw most recently in December. Ex-food, energy and trade year over year came in at +3.6%, 20 bps lower than expected, but still the highest since March of 2023.
We can see the reverberations from the Iran war most clearly in diesel fuel prices last month, which gained +42%. On the other hand, gas stations only climbed +0.2%; we may expect this figure to go up from here in the months to come, which would obviously be further inflationary. Food costs dropped -0.3% in March, but again we see some inflationary pressures in the pipeline for the next couple months at very least.
Small Business Optimism Slips a Tad in March
Earlier this morning, the Small-Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) came out with its latest monthly survey for March, reaching 95.8 from 98.8 the previous month. This is the lowest print since that exact 95.8 was reached back in April of last year — recall that month started with President Trump’s “Liberation Day” of massive tariff assignments, which were almost completely rolled back by the end of that month.
The 52-year average here is 98.0, and the reason this survey comes in so far below is due to the specter of higher oil prices as the Iran war and/or closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Small businesses will need to decide whether to eat these additional costs — much harder for smaller companies to do than larger ones — or pass them along to their customers.
Q1 Earnings Reports at a Glance: JPM, C, WFC
We saw Goldman SachsGS report Q1 earnings yesterday, but it is today where combined market cap for reporting companies reaches a new level. The biggest of the big banks — JPMorgan ChaseJPM, CitigroupC and Wells FargoWFC — are all out with quarterly results this morning.
JPMorgan posted a healthy +8% earnings surprise, with $5.94 per share ahead of the $5.49 in the Zacks consensus, with $49.84 billion in revenues coming in ahead of estimates by +2.62%. But CEO Jamie Dimon’s cautious tone about “increasingly complex” economic risks are keeping shares flat on the news, -2% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Citigroup posted an even bigger earnings beat of +15.9% with $3.06 per share in Q1. Revenues of $23.72 billion were +9% ahead of expectations. Wells Fargo, on the other hand, missed bottom-line estimates by 2 cents to $1.56 per share in the quarter, and -1.3% shy on the top line to $21.45 billion. Citi shares are up +1.5% in today’s early session, while Wells Fargo is -4.3%.
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Leggett is gaining from its solid balance sheet, ongoing restructuring activities aimed at enhancing its portfolio, driving margins and expanding the business.
Under Armour’s restructuring program is generating significant savings, enhancing long-term cost leverage. Management anticipates an additional $55 million in fiscal 2026.
Block is likely to gain from its growing Square and Cash App ecosystems. Its focus on Square GPV growth, innovations, strategic partnerships, BNPL and bitcoin payments bode well for growth.
TE Connectivity’s harsh-environment application business and industrial solutions are positives. Secular trends in autonomous driving systems and infotainment areas are tailwinds.
Starz Entertainment Corp. (STRZ)Upgraded: 04/09/26
Starz Entertainment’s accelerating OTT growth, improving margins, rising cash flow outlook and focused brand strategy position it for durable subscriber-driven expansion and long-term growth.
The robust performance of the express delivery services unit is impressive. Strong liquidity and a shareholder-friendly approach also bode well for ZTO.
Vans is V.F. Corp’s biggest challenge, with sales down 10% and weak consumer relevance. Although marketing resets and product repositioning efforts are underway, the turnaround is slow and continues to drag performance.
HEYDUDE brand faces ongoing headwinds from cautious U.S. consumers, tariffs, and wholesale pressures, with North America in a reset phase to improve profitability despite revenue declines.
Tariff and macro swings, rising robotaxi competition, high balance sheet obligations, and execution risk from global expansion constrain upside near-term.
Philips’ near-term profitability is likely to be hurt by lower consumer demand, stiff competition, unfavorable foreign exchange, and consequences of the Respironics field action.
Rocket faces rising expenses, Redfin and Mr. Cooper integration risk, and housing and regulatory headwinds. Muted originations due to tight inventory, high prices and still-high rates are a concern.
Persistently mounting expenses due to higher commission fees are likely to limit KKR & Co.’s bottom-line growth. Its unfavorable ROE compared with the industry’s average is a concern.
Tyson Foods leverages a diversified protein portfolio, strong chicken performance and global expansion to deliver resilient growth and long-term shareholder value.
Robust loan growth and Bank of America’s expansion into new markets by opening financial centers will likely aid the top line. Digital enhancements will keep aiding cross-selling opportunities.
Strength across all product groups is a positive catalyst for Edwards Lifesciences. The company’s bullish long-term growth strategy buoys optimism on the stock.
Intel’s leading position in PC market, strength in servers, growing clout in software, IoT & ADAS domains and headway in process technology are positive indicators of future growth prospects.
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