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Don’t look now, but the labor market in the U.S. has demonstrably improved. Where we had been at historic lows on job openings and under water on private-sector payrolls roughly a year ago, we’re now seeing monthly highs that go back prior to the second Trump administration.
Yesterday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for April spiked to 7.6 job openings, up from 6.88 million expected and the 6.89 million reported. This is the highest monthly tally since November of 2024, after two downward-moving months. Job Quits quieted to 3.0 million in the month.
The biggest change between March and April was in the near-million-job swing among Professional/Business Services positions, which went from -318K in the former month to +668K in the latter. In March, only the Northeast region gained in job opportunities; for April, only the Midwest did not show a gain in new job openings.
Automatic Data Processing ADPreleased its monthly private-sector payroll report this morning for May, posting +122K new jobs filled outside the government sector — the strongest month for this metric since January of 2025. It improves above the +117K consensus estimate and the downwardly revised +105K for April.
Small businesses bounced back in a big way: +67K new private-sector jobs were gained at firms of fewer than 50 employees. Large companies (over 500 employees) grew by +40K, and medium-sized businesses added +17K. Unsurprisingly, Education/Healthcare led by industry, +57K, followed by renewed strength in Trade/Transportation/Utilities at +36K, +11K at Professional/Business consulting, and +8K in Construction. This last may speak to the spreading out of AI investment to material parts of the economy — the building out of data centers includes plenty of construction work.
“Hiring has been more broad-based,” ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said, which bears out these findings. Meanwhile, wage gains in the private sector have been a non-factor: those who stayed in their current jobs made +4.4% more on average, whereas jobs changers averaged +6.6%. This remains a very narrow bar in the relatively short time ADP has kept this metric.
Q1 Earnings at a Glance: M, MDT & More to Come
Retail companies wrap up Q1 earnings season this morning, with department store major Macy’s M reporting its most impressive quarter in years: earnings of $0.13 per share trounced the +$0.02 expected, for a positive earnings surprise of +550%. Revenues also outpaced estimates, but by a more modest +1.28%. Raised guidance helped sentiment, and shares are up around +1% in today’s pre-market. For more on M’s earnings, click here.
MedtronicMDT, the world’s largest medical device company, also beat estimates this morning, for its fiscal Q4. Earnings of $1.55 per share improved over the Zacks consensus by a penny, on revenues of $9.81 billion — its highest growth in a decade — and above expectations by +1.48%. Shares are up +4% at this hour of the pre-market, but still down nearly -20% year to date. For more on MDT’s earnings, click here.
After today’s close, the earnings parade sweeps up some of its final noteworthy reporters. These include semiconductor giant BroadcomAVGO, cybersecurity major CrowdStrikeCRWD and Calvin Klein/Tommy Hilfiger parent PVHPVH.
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Improved premium income and underwriting margin, growth in average invested assets, non-competitive market, robust cash flow, capital deployment measures drive growth for Globe Life.
Takeout value, rising investment income, broader specialty scale, and tighter underwriting and expense discipline support the outperform thesis over time.
Carpenter Technology will gain from strong demand in its markets, cost-cutting initiatives and efforts to preserve liquidity. Acquisitions and investing in additive manufacturing will also aid growth.
Diversified services, rising infrastructure and an outsourcing mix, improving transaction activity, embedded development value and disciplined capital returns support the ongoing CBRE Group’s results.
Innovation across identity, governance, privileged access, and AI agent security supports backlog visibility, partner leverage, international reach, and cash generation.
Demand for zero trust security, expanding platform modules, AI initiatives, Z-Flex momentum, acquisitions and contracted visibility support Zscaler’s durable long-term growth.
Competitive office markets, development and lease-up execution, asset sale dilution and elevated leverage can limit near-term upside for cash flows in the case of Highwoods Properties.
Lamb Weston faces a tough backdrop with weak restaurant traffic, pricing pressure, and soft margins as cost headwinds and customer support measures weigh on near-term profitability.
Tariffs and promotions limit margin recovery, digital remains unsettled, and Greater China, sportswear and Converse resets extend NIKE’s revenue volatility in the near term.
Transaction weakness, commodity and labor inflation, slower closures, refinancing cost uncertainty, and limited international reach constrain recovery and valuation in the near term.
Persistently mounting expenses due to investments in franchises are likely to hurt Blackstone’s bottom-line growth. The sustainability of the company's capital distribution actions is less.
Titanium Technologies faces headwinds from falling prices and near-term operational disruptions. APM ails from weak demand. The company's high debt level is a concern.
Foodservice and international growth, disciplined pricing and brand-led innovation support earnings, while portfolio actions and productivity enhance resilience over time.
Broadcom is a leading player in the semiconductor market based on its expanding product portfolio, multiple target markets, accretive acquisitions and strong cash flow.
Alibaba benefits from its dominant e-commerce ecosystem, expanding cloud and AI businesses, improving international operations, and strong financial flexibility that supports long-term growth.
Align Technology’s robust product line, balanced growth across all channels and consistent focus on international markets to drive growth bolster our confidence in the stock.
US market leadership, disciplined pricing, recurring software revenue, steadier China profits, and sustained buybacks support returns for shareholders amid cyclical uncertainty.
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