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Ahead of Wall Street
Friday, July 18, 2025
Pre-market futures are up again as a very eventful trading week winds to a close. The Dow is currently +0.12%, the S&P 500 is +0.09% and the Nasdaq +0.16% at this hour. The small-cap Russell 2000 is shooting to another orbit this morning, +0.52%. It now leads all major indexes for the past week of trading, as it still tries to catch up with the other indexes year to date.
Bond yields have remained fairly steady through a thorough barrage of economic reports Q2 earnings releases, and open speculation about the future tenure of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The 10-year yield is up a mere 3 basis points (bps) from last Friday, +4.44%. The 2-year continues to shrink gradually, now +3.88%, while the 30-year remains hanging onto its recent 5-handle: +5.00%.
Housing Starts & Building Permits Improve, Stay Muted
Housing Starts for the month of June remained historically low, coming in slightly ahead of projections to 1.32 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, up from 1.256 million the prior month, which was the worst performance on new housing starts in five years. Multi-year highs back in April 2022 were 500K higher than they are presently.
Building Permits of 1.397 million were also up a bit month over month, from 1.394 million reported for May, which was the weakest level of permits for new homebuilding since June 2020. Back in January of 2022, we were close to 2 million building permits per month — but that was prior to the Fed raising interest rates, which directly sent mortgage rates surging higher.
Q2 Earnings Beats for 3M, AmEx & Schwab
Minnesota-based industrial conglomerate 3M MMM shares are up +3% on the company’s beat-and-raise in its Q2 report ahead of today’s opening bell. Earnings of $2.16 per share outshone the Zacks consensus of $2.01, for an earnings surprise of +7.46%. Revenues of $6.2 billion in the quarter improved over the $6.12 billion forecast. Earnings guidance for full-year 2025 was also raised to a range of $7.75-8.00 per share.
American Express AXP also surpassed expectations in its Q2 report this morning, with earnings of $4.08 per share beating the $3.86 expected and the $3.49 per share posted in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $17.9 billion topped the $17.69 billion estimate, for year-over-year growth of +9%. Shares are flat in today’s pre-market, up +6.25% year to date.
Financial services major Charles Schwab SCHW is having an even better morning, with shares up +5% in the pre-market, adding to its +26% growth year to date, with solid beats on both top and bottom lines in this morning’s Q2 report. Earnings of $1.14 per share on revenues of $5.85 billion surged past the $1.09 per share and $5.70 billion, respectively, in the Zacks consensus. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
After today’s open, we’ll see a preliminary print on Consumer Sentiment for July. This is expected to improve to 61.8 from the prior read of 60.7, which tracks with the present narrative of a healthy environment. Q2 earnings season overall has provided a rosier outlook, and most of the fears of tariffs sandbagging the economy have dissipated.
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Stocks On The Move
| Company | Symbol | Price | $Change | %Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco Ltd. | IVZ | 19.92 | 2.64 | 15.28 |
| Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | IBKR | 64.03 | 4.60 | 7.74 |
| Ducommun Incorporated | DCO | 90.54 | 3.73 | 4.30 |
| Vipshop Holdings Limited | VIPS | 15.80 | 0.49 | 3.20 |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | 542.41 | 13.81 | 2.61 |
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Earnings and Economic News
Key Earnings Reports For Jul 18, 2025
| Economic Event | Reported |
|---|---|
| (+) Mich Sentiment-Prel. - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |
| (+) Federal Funds Rate - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |
| (+) Housing Starts - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |
| (+) Treasury notes (10 yr) - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |
| (+) Building Permits - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |
| (+) Treasury bills (3 mth) - Jul 18, 2025 | -- |