Tuesday, June 9th, 2026

Pre-market futures are up following an overall mixed session Monday, with oil trading around $90 per barrel on both the WTI and Brent crude indexes, roughly half-way between the start of the war on Iran and the early-April peak. Hostilities have yet to fully cease, so a bonafide peace agreement does not appear close at hand, but markets remain in a good mood anyway.

Ahead of U.S. Trade Balance data this morning, the Dow is up +95 points, the S&P 500 +31, the Nasdaq robust again at +247 and the small-cap Russell 2000 gaining a very solid +26 points. After the Trade Balance report, they’ve all ticked slightly higher. Bond yields are hanging in a normal range, especially for the longer term (+4.54% on the 10-year yield presently), so we’re moving nicely at cruising altitude this morning.
 

U.S. Trade Balance Improves on Increased Exports

In the case of the U.S. Trade Balance, due to this number perpetually a deficit, lower numbers are preferred. An April headline of -$55.9 billion is close to, but beneath, the -$56.1 billion consensus estimate and the revised -$56.6 billion, from the -$60.3 billion originally reported the previous month. This marks the fourth-straight month sub-$60 billion.

This breaks down to +2% on U.S. Imports and +2.6% on Exports, including from our oil supplies to make up for shortages in regions, as the war in Iran expands into its fifteenth week. Tariffs have worked their way into the mix more comfortably — especially off the record-low set in March 2025 of -$135.9 billion, directly ahead of “Liberation Day” tariff policy. Again, we’re seeing investors cast a pleased eye toward these metrics.
 

Small-Business Confidence on the Wane in May

Not all economic reports this morning are quite so sunny. Earlier this morning, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released the Small Business Index for May reached +95.3, the lowest print since October 2024 and the fourth-straight sub-96. Taxes were considered the biggest problem facing small businesses, followed closely by inflation — +19% and +18%, respectively. 

Only +16% of small businesses expect to make capital outlays over the next quarter or two, with +70% reporting supply chain disruptions last month. A full +36% of small businesses surveyed raised prices, and +34% plan to raise in the near future. 
 

What to Expect Today, and For the Week

Most of the oxygen this week is being taken up by the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on Friday. The projected $1.77 trillion valuation would make CEO Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. That said, there are plenty of analysts with questions whether such a massive valuation is warranted currently. 

Just this morning, ChatGPT parent OpenAI has also filed for its IPO. It did so rather quietly, one week after Anthropic made its announcement to go public. Both AI giants look toward this fall for their possible trillion-dollar capitalizations to be realized.

Perhaps more important to the overall economy will be the retail inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due tomorrow. The headline Inflation Rate month over month reached +0.4% last time around, for the first time since January of 2025. To find a higher print, we’re going back to April of 2023. Analysts are expecting +4.2% inflation year over year, +2.9% on core CPI. These would both be higher than the prior month.

After today’s open, Existing Home Sales for May are expected to tick up slightly, from 4.05 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units from 4.02 million in the previous month. This index has been sub-4.1 million in eight of the past 12 months. A notable uptick here would suggest housing may be starting to climb out of its doldrums. 

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