Tuesday, April 7th, 2026

Pre-market futures are in the red this morning, following a Monday trading session that saw major indexes move up roughly have a percentage point. At this hour, the Dow is down -226 points, -0.47%, the S&P 500 is -37 points, -0.56%, the Nasdaq -181 points, -0.75% and the small-cap Russell 2000 -19, -0.78%.
 

Durable Goods Orders Mixed-to-Lower in February

Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for the month of February (delayed — final results due in a couple weeks) came in lower than expected on headline, with spots of better news “beneath the fold.” Today’s -1.4% is the weakest month of Durable Goods Orders since October of last year, and 30 basis points (bps) lower than expectations. The prior month’s originally reported 0.0% ratchets down to -0.5%.

Stripping out Transportation costs, we see this figure more than double month over month to +0.8%, from a downwardly revised +0.3% in January. This is the strongest print since December of 2025. Non-defense, ex-aircraft — a proxy for “normal” business spending (computers, office space, cybersecurity, etc.) — came in better than expected at +0.6%. That said, the prior month’s “normal” business spending dropped notable to -0.4% from +0.8% originally reported.

Shipments also posted their strongest month since December: +0.9%. Of course, we’re looking in the rearview mirror here, and until we see March figures we won’t even be scratching the surface on durable goods orders that reflects realities of spiking oil prices due to the Iran war.
 

What to Expect from the Market Today

All eyes are on this latest deadline ultimatum from President Trump, who has given Iran until this evening to open the Strait of Hormuz — where 20% of daily global oil is transported — or be subjected to massive bombing of Iranian infrastructure ("A whole civilization will die tonight..." begins Trump's latest social media post). Should the Strait suddenly open up today, we can expect a big rally and a drop in oil prices. Should the fresh wave of bombing ensue, we’re likely to see oil prices move quite the other direction.

At this stage, WTI spot prices are up +2.4% to around $115 per barrel (/bbl), while Brent remains trailing somewhat at $110/bbl (+0.7%). Extended attacks on Iranian bridges and water desalination plants will likely bring counter-bombing to energy infrastructures in neighboring Middle Eastern countries by Iran. This would likely make the closure of the Strait of Hormuz slightly less relevant — if there is less energy to collect from the region, they won’t need to ship as much, anyway.

So markets are hedging slightly to the downside on this prospect. With earnings reports on deck for next week and beyond, what happens tonight in Iran will be greatly informative toward corporate projections toward future earnings. We’ve already seen oil prices double from the start of the year; prolonged aggravation of global oil supply and delivery will eventually find its way into virtually every company’s forward balance sheet.

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