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This morning, pre-market futures are higher following a selloff of mixed proportions on Monday. (For instance, the blue-chip Dow fell -557 points, -1.13%, on renewed uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, while the tech/AI-centric Nasdaq dipped just -46 points, -0.19%. Today, off early morning highs, the Dow is +200 points, the Nasdaq +206 points and the S&P 500 +32. The small-cap Russell 2000 leads major indexes so far, +23 points, +0.82%.
Tensions are escalating in the Strait once again overnight, with shots being traded by Iran and the U.S. Iran has also attacked an oil refinery in the UAE, further hampering global energy supplies. Analysts are concerned the war could heat up from here; unless talks resume in the near term, with both sides serious about achieving peace, they just might be correct. That said, pre-markets are trading as if cooler heads will prevail.
U.S. Trade Balance Stays In-Range
This morning, we saw the deepest deficit of 2026 in the U.S. Trade Balance for March: -$60.3 billion was lower than the slightly downwardly revised -$57.8 billion the previous month. That said, the deficit remains in range with the near-term high January’s -$54.7 billion and December’s low -$72.9 billion.
Only mild adjustments have been made in this data. Keep in mind: these are still March numbers, before the “rubber hit the road” from the prolonged Iran war. Imports grew +2.3% for the month and Exports +2.0%. We’ve been range-bound on the trade deficit for a year now; will events in the Middle East have shifted our trajectory"
Q1 Earnings at a Glance: PFE, ADM, MPC & More
Big Pharma staple Pfizer PFE outpaced estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning, with earnings of +$0.75 per share beating expectations by 4 cents, on $14.45 billion in revenues, which were +4.56% above the Zacks consensus. Cancer drugs Padcev and Lorbrena both saw operational growth over +30%. Shares are up mildly on the news, +5.6% year to date. For more on PFE’s earnings, click here.
Food commodity supplier Archer Daniels-MidlandADM also outperformed expectations on its Q1 bottom line, with earnings of +$0.71 per share easily surpassing the $0.66 anticipated. Revenues of $20.49 billion, however, came in -2.93% lower than consensus. Shares are also up slightly in today’s pre-market, but following +32.7% growth year over year. For more on ADM’s earnings, click here.
Oil refiner Marathon PetroleumMPC posted perhaps the biggest positive surprise of the morning, with earnings of +$1.65 per share +129% higher than the $0.72 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues were also solidly higher than projections, by +13.88% to $34.57 billion in the quarter. Same deal in the pre-market: up slightly, but +55.3% year to date. For more on MPC’s earnings, click here.
Elsewhere, PayPalPYPL outperformed estimates on its bottom line this morning — $1.34 per share versus $1.27 estimated, for a +5.51% beat — and ShopifySHOP posted earnings of $0.36 per share, 4 cents higher than the Zacks consensus. Yet PayPal shares are selling off -9.6% on the news and Shopify is -7.8% at this hour.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits after today’s open, when the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), for March, hits the tape. Expectations are for job openings to dip a tad to 6.8 million from 6.9 million the prior month. Again, we’ve seen a bit of volatility over the past few months, so we’ll see if this begins to calm down.
New Home Sales are expected to have grown in March (working off delated data — February numbers are expected this morning, as well) to +660K. The +587K reported in January was the lowest monthly tally since July of 2022, when mortgage rates were jumping on 40-year-high inflation.
After the close today, Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated semiconductor giant Advance Micro DevicesAMD reports Q1 earnings. Expectations are for +35.42% earnings growth on +32.33% for revenues — clearly the latest winner in the AI-demand sweepstakes. The company last posted an earnings miss back in 2019.
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NICE leads in Customer Engagement with CXone, expanding through acquisitions like LiveVox, and demonstrates strong performance in CX solutions & Financial Crime sector.
The bullish momentum in Gaming and Video Collaboration businesses, along with the thriving cloud-based video conferencing services, will continue to be catalysts for the company’s growth.
National Vision benefits from the strong execution of core growth initiatives and disciplined cost management. Store rationalizations efforts should help improve operational metrics.
Stabilizing funding costs and decent loan growth will keep aiding Hilltop Holdings’ top line. Its strong balance sheet and business restructuring initiatives are expected to offer further support.
GTX stands to benefit from diversification into higher-margin adjacencies, continued turbo share gains, margin expansion and increasing zero-emission optionality.
Roper is benefiting from strength across each segment and accretive acquisitions. The company’s efforts to reward its shareholders through dividend payments are encouraging.
Persistent tariffs and chip costs, pronounced deceleration in the second half of the year and consumer fragility constraints limit full-year upside potential.
Walmart's margin expansion remains constrained by elevated operating costs and tariff risks. An ongoing mix shift toward lower-margin essentials amid macroeconomic uncertainty are also concerns.
WBD faces structural decline in linear TV, intense streaming competition, volatile studio revenues and ARPU pressure, raising concerns over long-term earnings visibility.
Weak housing demand, margin compression, cost inflation and competitive pressure are reducing earnings visibility and limiting near-term recovery potential for the business.
Tariff swings and input inflation pressure margins, while cautious U.S. retail demand and potentially higher freight costs create earnings volatility in the near term.
TG Therapeutics’ heavy dependence on Briumvi for revenues is a concern. Stiff competition from established players in the target market also remains an overhang.
American Eagle is well placed on cost-reduction efforts and brand progress. In the second half, the company expects to cycle tariffs and advertising investments.
Robust loan growth and stabilizing funding costs will keep aiding Bank of America’s NII growth. Opening of new financial centers, along with digital upgrades, will aid cross-selling opportunities.
Strength in the Energy Generation/Storage business, balance sheet strength, and focus on autonomous driving, robotics and artificial intelligence are set to drive Tesla.
Strength across all product groups is a positive catalyst for Edwards Lifesciences. The company’s bullish long-term growth strategy buoys optimism on the stock.
US market leadership, disciplined pricing, recurring software revenue, steadier China profits, and sustained buybacks support returns for shareholders amid cyclical uncertainty.
Intel’s leading position in PC market, strength in servers, growing clout in software, IoT & ADAS domains and headway in process technology are positive indicators of future growth prospects.
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