Tuesday, May 12th, 2026

Pre-market futures are mostly in the red so far this morning, though off early-morning lows which came directly following this morning’s inflation report from April. Overall, we appear to be flattening out from strong gains made over the past month of Q1 earnings season results. The Dow is +25 points presently, while the S&P 500 is -17 points, the Nasdaq -204 and the small-cap Russell 2000 -12 points.
 

Small Business Concerns Apparent: NFIB

Early this morning, the latest NFIB Small Business Index is out today, coming in slightly below estimates but below the 52-year average for the second-straight month: 95.9, up 10 basis points (bps) from the prior-month level, which was the weakest level of small-business optimism since April of 2025 (“Liberation Day” tariff month). We last reached that 52-year average, 98.0, back in February of this year.

The Uncertainty Index remains well above the long-term average: 88 versus 68, but this is lower month over month by 4 points. The Employment Index is down for the second straight month on inflation pressures. Small business owners look forward to the Working Families Tax Cut Act, due to take effect later this year, ahead of the midterm elections.
 

CPI Numbers As Expected: Higher Year Over Year

The April print from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in largely as anticipated — though that anticipation was rightly higher. Headline month-over-month reached +0.6%, in-line with consensus, and down 30 bps from March’s +0.9%, which was the hottest print in nearly four years. Strip out food and energy prices and the “core” figure comes down to +0.4% — higher than expected, and double the unrevised +0.2% from the prior month.

Year over year CPI, aka the “Inflation Rate,” came in at +3.8% on headline, as expected but +0.5% higher month over month, nearly double the Fed’s preferred Inflation Rate of +2% and the loftiest inflation number since May 2023, when rates were moving in the opposite direction. Core year over year was a tick higher than projected: +2.8%, up 20 bps from the previous month and the highest since September of last year.

We can see clearly how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected energy prices — +3.8% overall, +5.4% for gasoline — but we also see a jump in Airline prices, +2.8%. This suggests that the extended strain on global oil supply is making its way into the general economy. Electricity was up +2.1%, which may illustrate the effect of data center construction and usage. Real Earnings are now -0.2%, suggesting wage growth is not keeping up with inflation.

Goods costs did not raise at all, 0.0%, possibly due to the tariff rolloff following the recent Supreme Court ruling. But it may only be a matter of time before oil supply disruptions show up in the transportation of food and other goods in the coming months, as well. News headlines from the Middle East have been less than encouraging of late, as the Strait threatens to be an issue through the summer, at least. So this Goods metric is certainly something to keep our eye on going forward.
 

Earnings Season Rolls Along: JD, BAYRY, UAA, MAIR

While most of the marquee corporations have already reported earnings for the quarter, we do see a few notable reports out ahead of the bell. These include international firms like China-based e-commerce giant JD.com JD, which beat earnings estimates by +29.8%, and German pharma major Bayer BAYRY outperforming on its bottom line by +23.4%. Shares of each are up +1% and +3% at this hour.

Baltimore-based UnderArmour UAA, on the other hand, posted a bottom-line miss of -12.4% to -$0.03 per share. Revenues were roughly in-line, but slightly lower year over year. As a result, shares are down -14% in early trading today, erasing nearly all of the stock’s gains year to date. For more on UAA’s earnings, click here.

One company gaining interest of late is Madison Air Solutions MAIR, which has taken its niche market of pharma lab and semi foundry ventilation solutions and parlayed this to data center construction. As a result, Q1 sales beat the consensus estimate by +108% and raised guidance for the current quarter. Shares are up +3.6% at this hour, adding to the firm’s +35.5% share price growth since the start of the year.

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Key Earnings Reports For May 12, 2026