Monday, June 15th, 2026

Pre-market futures are back toward all-time high levels this morning, responding to the news over the weekend that the war between the U.S. and Iran has ended. Both countries have agreed to an interim Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which includes an end to hostilities and the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, spot oil prices have come down to $80 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI, way down from the $113/bbl we were seeing 10 weeks ago.

Iran is expected to sign this MOU on Friday, meaning all that needs to happen between now and then is nothing — no military strikes, including in Lebanon. The U.S. has agreed to end its naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran would end its pursuit for building nuclear weapons. Assuming all goes well this week, there will still be weeks of clearing mines out of the Strait before global oil deliveries begin to return to normal levels. 

The agreement comes directly ahead of a new G7 summit this week, taking place in the alpine region of France near Geneva, Switzerland. Aside from the ceasing of hostilities in the Middle East, topics under discussion will no doubt include U.S. tariffs, continued support for Ukraine from Russia’s invasion 4+ years ago, and China’s grip on rare earth minerals.
 

Empire State Manufacturing Misses Estimates

Monthly manufacturing data from the state of New York, Empire State Manufacturing, is out this morning for the month of June: 5.7 is the lowest print since March, below consensus expectations for +13.9, and less than a third of the unrevised 19.6 reported a month ago. That said, it marks the third-straight month of Empire State growth, which is something we haven’t seen since late 2021/early 2022. Both new orders and shipments are well off the lows we were seeing as recently as a year ago.
 

Kevin Warsh’s 1st FOMC Meeting as Fed Chair This Week

After eight years of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chaired by Jerome Powell — which was marked by a swift response slashing rates at the foothills of the Covid pandemic, a much slower response to evidence of inflation hitting the economy, and routinely attacked by President Trump by insisting the Fed keep rates at levels that would bring inflation toward 2% — this week marks the first FOMC meeting with his successor, Kevin Warsh. Formerly the youngest Fed Governor on the committee during the Great Recession, he has the opportunity this week to remake the office in his own image.

Warsh was something of a contrarian voting member during his Fed governorship which ended 15 years ago, where he expressed a willingness to raise interest rates as the country, and the world, recovered from the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression. This time around, he is more aligned with President Trump, who has argued vehemently for lowering interest rates, even in the face of fresh waves of inflationary pressures.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Warsh intends to conduct his office with less transparency than his predecessor. In yesterday’s report, “Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything,” the recently installed Fed Chair advocates “more thinking, less talking.” We expect a different tone from Powell’s relative openness at the press conference following Wednesday’s decision on new Fed monetary policy.

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