Monday, September 14th, 2026

Pre-market futures are in the red to begin a new trading week. Off near-term highs a month ago, the major indexes have now trended back to where we’ve been for most of the year, going back to April/May. The Dow is down -184 points, the Nasdaq -469 and the S&P 500 -48 points at this hour. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -14 points currently.

We have no major economic reports nor prominent earnings releases this Monday, so market sentiment is driven by news headlines. Most explicitly, a Great Rethink on AI buildouts — after a former OpenAI and Anthropic employee sounded the alarm that dangers to humanity lurk behind unregulated AI — is sending stocks like Marvell Technologies MRVL and AMD AMD down more than -6% in early trading. Conversely, software makers like CrowdStrike CRWD and ServiceNow NOW are up on this sentiment.

Lest we forget, the war in Iran continues to rage on. Currently, it’s the Saudis under attack, specifically by Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen, who have struck a Saudi airbase and control key trade routes in the Red Sea. With the Iran side gaining ground, this puts U.S. negotiators in a hole presently. And yet there is no public appetite for escalating this war among American citizens, with a midterm election now visibly on the horizon.

Oil prices are up +4% to $104 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $109/bbl on Brent crude. We were last at these levels in mid-late May, around the time the Momentum of Understanding (MOU) was conjured. This brought a reprieve of a couple months or so, until hostilities began to boil over again later in the summer. The trajectory of the spot oil price graphs are not good; it suddenly appears that $120/bbl oil is a real possibility in the near-term.

Bond yields are encroaching this morning, as well: +4.983% is the loftiest we’ve seen since they kissed +5% briefly three years ago. Before that, we’d have to go pre-mortgage-backed financial collapse in 2007 to see bond yields on the 10-year this high. The 2-year is now where the 10-year had been not long ago: +4.647%.
 

FOMC Meeting Tuesday & Wednesday: Will They Raise Rates"

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its latest monetary policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. As we’ve just noted here in this column, events around the globe are pretty loudly calling for a rate hike, likely +25 basis points (bps) to a +3.75-4.00%, which is where we were last fall. But when Wednesday afternoon comes around, will Fed Chair Kevin Warsh actually be announcing a rate hike"

There are reasons to be skeptical — the largest of which is President Trump, who attacked former Fed Chair Jerome Powell relentlessly over his lack of reducing interest rates in the manner the president preferred. Warsh has only held this job since May; is he willing to risk a verbal hailstorm for the remainder of his four-year term by raising rates" On the other hand, is he willing to risk the credibility of his tenure as head of the Fed by holding rates steady again"

Odds are that a quarter-point hike is imminent this week. Ahead of last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), it was basically a coin-flip as to whether the Fed will see enough economic data to make a move. Post-CPI, the odds have ballooned up to around +80%. In the most recent FOMC meeting this past July, three dissenters — Presidents Kashkari (Minneapolis), Hammack (Cleveland) and Logan (Dallas) — opted for a 25 bps hike. Others, like Goolsbee (Chicago) and Schmid (Kansas City) seem to have been leaning toward a hike in subsequent public discourse.

What if the Fed is deadlocked on Wednesday" After all, Powell is still a voting member at the Fed, currently as Fed Governor. There are 12 voters — an even number. These considerations are most likely game-played in the force to hike overwhelming the wishes of President Trump, at least for now. Bond yields on the 10-year at +5% speak pretty loudly.

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Key Earnings Reports For Sep 14, 2026