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Bear of the Day: Starbucks (SBUX)

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Key Takeaways

  • Weak sales trends have been a thorn in the side of SBUX.
  • Recent results could signal a potential turnaround.
  • The stock is nearly flat over the last five years.

Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) is a roaster and retailer of specialty coffee globally. In addition to its coffee offerings, the company provides a range of complimentary food items and a selection of premium teas and other beverages, sold primarily through its retail stores.

Analysts have taken their earnings expectations lower, landing the stock into an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). The company is also a part of the Zacks Retail – Restaurant industry, which is currently ranked in the bottom 15% of all Zacks industries.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s take a closer look at how the company currently stacks up.

Time For a Turnaround?

Starbucks posted mixed results relative to our consensus expectations in its latest quarterly release, with adjusted EPS of $0.52 falling short of our consensus estimate by roughly 5.5%. Quarterly sales totaled $9.5 billion, beating our estimate by nearly 3%.

Weakening sales growth has been a major challenge for the company in recent years. The trend was partly evident again in its latest release, with global comparable store sales increasing just 1% year-over-year and its North America and US store locations seeing flat growth.

But while the recently-reported 1% YoY sales growth rate remains unimpressive, it’s a notable improvement relative to recent periods, as shown below. Please note that the chart tracks the YoY % change in sales, not actual sales figures.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

As reflected in the chart above, the top line crunch could be nearing its end for SBUX, a key development to keep note of. Continued acceleration in sales would be key to maintaining a sustainable uptrend in the stock, with the margin picture also remaining critical.

The company remains confident in the continued turnaround as well, with CFO Cathy Smith remaining bullish in the recent earnings commentary –

‘Q4 was a milestone quarter in getting ‘Back to Starbucks’, having delivered global comp growth for the first time in seven quarters. We know this continues to be a multi-year turnaround. We remain focused on driving our topline while managing the costs that are within our control to deliver durable, sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value.’

Bottom Line

Analysts' negative earnings estimate revisions, resulting from a growth cooldown, paint a challenging picture for the company’s shares in the near term.

Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook.

For those seeking strong stocks, a great idea would be to focus on stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). These stocks sport a notably stronger earnings outlook and the potential to deliver explosive gains in the near term


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