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Markets close calendar Q2 and the first half of 2025 (1H25) at fresh all-time highs on the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The indexes all finished the session off intraday highs set only moment before the bell rang, but the Dow gained +275 points, +0.63%, the S&P 500 was +31, +0.52% — crossing 6200 for the first time at the end of a trading day. The Nasdaq grew +96 points, +0.47%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 finished +2 points, +0.12%.
The Dow gained +4% in the month of June, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up over +6%. Treasuries notched their best first-half of a year in five years. AI component giant NVIDIA NVDA gained +15% over the past month, while crypto platform RobinhoodHOOD is up +12% for June, to name but a few.
All big banks put to the latest stress test managed to pass, with JPMorganJPM gathering an extra +1% today. Oil prices have fallen nearly $10 per barrel over the past 10 days, keeping fuel prices low — even coming off the specter of inflamed tensions between Israel/U.S. and Iran. And the windfall tax cut “Big Beautiful Bill” undergoes its “vote-o-rama” phase before potentially passing the Senate later tonight or early tomorrow.
Chicago Business Barometer Lower in June
Not everything was coming up roses today, however: the Chicago Business Barometer, released this morning by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), came in below estimates to 40.4, 10 basis points (bps) lower than the previous month. Any print sub-50 is an indication of contraction, and for this metric, this has been the case for 19 -straight months.
A full 90% of business leaders in the region believe we will see less than +5% growth, with 45% seeing flat or a decline in growth for the second half of the year. Recall the tariff issue remains largely unresolved: the 90-day pause a week after “Liberation Day” expires a week from Thursday. Either we’ll see a rash of trade deals between now and then, a further pushback or dissolving of tariff initiatives, or they will be slapped on, often a levels that would severely hamper trade.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Tuesday
Tuesday brings us the first monthly jobs numbers in a week full of them, with the May print on Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) expected to tick down to 7.3 million job openings for the month. We have begun to see labor market reads unravel just a tad; these JOLTS figures are from a month in arrears. That said, notably lower results would track with what we’ve seen in jobs numbers elsewhere.
Also, final Manufacturing results for June from both the S&P and ISM are expected after the opening bell Tuesday. Further, Construction Spending and various reports of Auto Sales and deliveries will begin reporting tomorrow. So while today we are cruising to new highs, it would be prudent to be mindful that there are potential headwinds to come.
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Investment securities portfolio repositioning & Fed rate cuts will aid NII growth. Rising loans and deposits balance, decent liquidity and steady capital deployment plans are other major tailwinds.
The secular growth trend in the online travel booking market, strong position in international markets and growth opportunities in the domestic market are positives.
Northern Trust’s rising revenues are aided by steady loan growth. Expense management initiatives assist in improving its operating leverage. Decent liquidity aids capital distribution activities.
Rising NII will boost Webster Financial's top line in the upcoming period. Also, strategic buyouts have fortified its balance sheet, while deposit and loan growth will continue aiding its financials.
Approval of Ohtuvayre for the COPD indication is a major boost for Verona. The drug’s sales have become a regular source of income. Its pipeline is also progressing well.
Softness across industrial and consumer electronics end markets, rising costs, intensifying competition and leveraged balance sheets are key headwinds.
Elevated expense levels and lack of geographical diversification are expected to hamper Hercules Capital’s growth. Additionally, a stretched valuation limits the upside potential of the stock.
First Horizon’s rising expenses and subdued mortgage banking business amid high rates are headwinds. Further, a concentrated commercial loan portfolio and deteriorating asset quality are woes.
Flowers Foods is facing headwinds in critical business segments, including the cake category and private label. The company witnessed a decline in volumes in the first quarter of 2025.
A persistent increase in operating expenses, driven by higher compensation costs, is likely to hurt Credit Acceptance’s profitability. Weak asset quality amid a tough operating backdrop is a woe.
Amazon is benefiting from its Prime program, delivery and logistic system in the e-commerce space. Further, its dominant position in cloud market is a positive.
Netflix’s growing subscriber base, driven by content strength, focus on originals across various genres and languages, rapid international expansion and partnerships with telcos are key drivers.
Broadcom is a leading player in the semiconductor market based on its expanding product portfolio, multiple target markets, accretive acquisitions and strong cash flow.
Higher rates for longer, decent loan demand and expansion into new markets by opening financial centers will aid Bank of America. Also, digital enhancement will keep aiding cross-selling opportunities.
Central Garden & Pet advances digital, supply chain and product innovation while driving margin gains and M&A, backed by strong financials and a focused Cost and Simplicity program.
