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Why Is Norfolk Southern (NSC) Up 12.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Norfolk Southern (NSC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 12.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Norfolk Southern due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat at Norfolk Southern in Q2

Norfolk Southern's earnings of $1.53 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39. However, the bottom line plunged 43% on a year-over-year basis. Railway operating revenues in the quarter under review came in at $2,085 million, edging past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,061.5 million. The top line however declined 29% year over year due to 26% drop in total volumes as a result of the economic downturn caused by coronavirus.

Income from railway operations plunged 43% year over year to $610 million. Operating expenses declined 21% on a year-over-year basis to $1,475 million, thanks to low fuel, compensation and benefits, and purchased services expenses. Norfolk Southern’s operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) in the second quarter deteriorated to 70.7% from 63.6% in the year-ago period. With respect to this metric, lower the value, the better.

Segmental Performance

On a year-over-year basis, coal revenues totaled $209 million, down 55% year over year. Coal volumes contracted 57%. However, revenue per unit inched up 3% in the reported quarter.

Merchandise revenues declined 26% to $1,307 million and volumes fell 29%. Revenue per unit improved 5% for the segment.

Intermodal revenues declined 19% year over year to $569 million. Segmental volumes also decreased 16%. Revenue per unit slipped 4% on a year-over-year basis.

Liquidity & Share Buyback

The company exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,143 million compared with $580 million at the end of 2019. The company had long-term debt of $12,612 million at the end of the reported quarter compared with $11,880 million at 2019-end.

During the first six months of 2020, Norfolk Southern repurchased and retired 3.9 million shares at a cost of $669 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Norfolk Southern has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Norfolk Southern has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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