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Why Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Up 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 4.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ionis Pharmaceuticals due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ionis Misses Estimates for Q3 Earnings and Sales

Ionis reported third-quarter adjusted loss per share of 22 cents, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 11 cents. In the year-ago quarter, Ionis had recorded earnings of 18 cents per share, which included a $150 million license fee Ionis earned from Novartis.

Ionis reported total revenues of $160 million, down 4.8% year over year due to lower R&D revenues and royalties on Spinraza in the quarter. Sales also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $180 million.

Quarter in Detail

Ionis has three commercial medicines approved in major global markets, Spinraza, Tegsedi and Waylivra. It has licensed Spinraza to Biogen.

Ionis earns commercial revenues, primarily royalty payments on net sales of Spinraza and R&D revenues, from partnered medicines.

Third-quarter revenues comprised commercial revenues of $95 million, down 1% year over year, and R&D revenues of $65 million, down almost 10% from the year-ago quarter.

Commercial revenues from Spinraza royalties were $74 million, down almost 10% year over year as Biogen reported softer sales of the drug. Product sales from Tegsedi and Waylivra were $19 million compared with $12 million in the year-ago quarter. License and royalty revenues were $2 million in the quarter.

The company is witnessing growth in the number of patients on Tegsedi across North America and Europe, partly due to its subcutaneous, self-injection, which can be used at home, an important benefit during the pandemic.

R&D revenues included more than $50 million for advancing medicines within its neurological disease franchise driven by several Biogen partnered programs,

R&D expenses rose 20.2% to $125 million in the quarter due to investments made to support its own pipeline. SG&A expenses rose 15% year over year to $69 million in the quarter.

2020 Guidance

Ionis expects to be meaningfully profitable in 2020. Ionis expects a substantial increase in R&D revenues in the fourth quarter, including the $75 million milestone payment from Pfizer as it began a phase IIb study on vupanorsen.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 97.54% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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