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Will Humira, Cancer Drugs Drive AbbVie (ABBV) Q4 Earnings?

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AbbVie, Inc.’s (ABBV - Free Report) flagship product, Humira's sales are likely to have decelerated in the fourth quarter, given the launch of biosimilars in international markets, especially Europe. The drug is approved for several inflammatory indications. It is also a major revenue generating drug for AbbVie and brought almost half of the company’s revenues in the first nine months of 2020.

Meanwhile, in the United States, market growth across all indications were partially offset by lower new patient starts due to COVID-19 impact. Reviving U.S. market is likely to have led to better U.S. sales of the drug in the soon-to-be reported quarter. However, concern remains as Humira is a physician-administered drug and the impact of resurgence of COVID-19 cases remains to be seen when the company reports.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira stands at $5.02 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. sales is pegged at $4.27 billion while that for international sales is $854 million.

AbbVie’s stock has gained 24.5% in the past year compared with an increase of 5% for the industry.

New immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are likely to have contributed to top-line growth. The drugs have shown encouraging launch uptake. On its third-quarter earnings call, the company stated that Rinvoq had already achieved similar market share in rheumatoid arthritis segment compared to Humira while Skyrizi became the market leader in the psoriasis segment. These two drugs are likely to have partially offset some loss of Humira sales to generics in international markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyrizi sales is pegged at $505 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. and international sales of Rinvoq is pegged at $235 million and $36 million, respectively.

Sales of key oncology medicine, Imbruvica were driven by continued penetration among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the first nine months of 2020. However, lower new patient starts in the CLL indication amid COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have hurt sales in the fourth quarter. The drug is marketed in partnership with J&J (JNJ - Free Report) globally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is pegged at $1.43 billion, comprising sales of $1.17 billion in the United States and $260 million of international profit sharing with J&J.

Sales of another leukemia drug, Venclexta, have been gaining from continued share gains across all approved indications since the past few quarters. However, lower new patient utilization may have impacted fourth-quarter performance as Venclexta is a hospital-based treatment. AbbVie markets Venclexta in partnership with Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) . The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is pegged at $375 million.

However, sales of AbbVie’s new HCV drug, Mavyret are likely to have been hurt by lower patient volumes in certain international markets and competitive dynamics in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total sales is pegged at $479 million.

Sales of other drugs like Duodopa, Creon, Synthroid, and Lupron are likely to have increased in the quarter.

With the acquisition of Allergan, AbbVie added a key drug, Botox, to its portfolio. The drug is available as therapeutics as well as cosmetic. The company added a few other key aesthetics and neuroscience drugs as well. A faster-than-expected recovery in aesthetics and neuroscience is expected to have boosted AbbVie’s top line in the soon-to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the aesthetic franchise stands at $1.07 billion and $1.38 billion for the neuroscience franchise.

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

AbbVie Inc. price-consensus-chart | AbbVie Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank & Stock to Consider

AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here

A top-ranked pharma company is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) , which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Its earnings estimates for 2021 and 2022 have risen 1.25% and 0.23%, respectively over the past 30 days. The stock has risen 47.5% in the past year.

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