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U.S. Steel (X) Down 11.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for United States Steel (X - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 11.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is U.S. Steel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

U.S. Steel Beats Earnings and Revenue Estimates in Q4

U.S. Steel recorded net income of $49 million or 22 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2020 compared with a loss of $668 million or $3.93 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted loss per share was 27 cents compared with a loss of 64 cents in the prior-year quarter. The figure was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 71 cents.

Revenues fell 9% year over year to $2,562 million in the reported quarter. However, it beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,537.5 million.

The company benefited from its cost-management actions and higher prices in the quarter.

Segment Highlights

Flat-Rolled: The segment recorded a loss of $73 million in the fourth quarter compared with a loss of $79 million in the year-ago quarter.

Steel shipments in the segment fell roughly 10% year over year to 2,257,000 tons and average realized price per ton in the unit was $731, up around 5% year over year.

U.S. Steel Europe: The segment posted profits of $36 million against a loss of $30 million in the year-ago quarter. Shipments in the segment rose around 11% year over year to 840,000 tons. Average realized price per ton for the unit was $652, up around 5% year over year.

Tubular:  Loss in the segment was $32 million, narrower than a loss of $46 million in the year-ago quarter.

Steel shipments declined roughly 62% year over year to 74,000 tons. Average realized price per ton for the unit was $1,267 down roughly 2% year over year.

FY20 Results

Loss (as reported) for full-year 2020 was $5.92 per share, compared with a loss of $3.67 per share a year ago. Adjusted loss was $4.67 per share for 2020 compared with earnings of 9 cents a year ago.

Revenues dropped around 24% year over year to roughly $9,741 million for the full year.

Financials

Cash and cash equivalents more than doubled year over year to $1,985 million at the end of 2020. Long-term debt rose roughly 29% year over year to $4,695 million.

Outlook

The company noted that its performance continues to strengthen as it entered the new year. It is optimistic that the market will continue to be driven by strong demand, low inventories, and supportive raw material prices.

With the buyout of the remaining stake in Big River Steel, U.S. Steel is well placed to drive significant earnings growth and deliver an unmatched value proposition to its customers.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 43.03% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, U.S. Steel has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, U.S. Steel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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