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Why Is Aspen Technology (AZPN) Up 5.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Aspen Technology (AZPN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Aspen Technology due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Aspen Lags Q3 Earnings & Revenue Estimates
Aspen Technology reported third-quarter fiscal 2021 non-GAAP earnings of $1.05 per share that missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.5%. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of 72 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Revenues of $162.7 million also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9%. The company reported revenues of $130.6 million in the year-ago quarter.
The year-over-year upside in top line was owing to increases in total bookings. In the quarter under review, the company noted that alarming COVID situation in several parts of the world along with the polar vortex weather event in February negatively impacted refining and chemicals industry and in turn affected transaction closings.
Total bookings were $175.6 million, up 39% year over year on the back of higher renewal activity.
Quarter in Detail
License revenues (67.7% of revenues) rallied 40.8% year over year to $110.1 million.
Maintenance revenues (28.2%) increased 3.8% year over year to $45.9 million.
Services and other revenues (4.1%) declined 18.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $6.7 million.
As of Mar 31, 2021, the annual spend (which Aspen Technology defines as the annualized value of all term license and maintenance contracts at the end of the quarter) amounted to $609.9 million, up 6% year over year and 1% quarter over quarter.
Margins
Gross profit increased 27.7% year over year to $146.7 million. As a percentage of total revenues, the figure expanded 210 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis to 90.1%.
Total operating expenses increased 10.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $77.8 million due to increase in general & administrative expenses, research and development as well as selling and marketing.
Non-GAAP operating income of $80.9 million compared with $53.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin was 49.7% compared with 41.3% operating margin reported in the year-ago quarter.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
As of Mar 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $317.1 million compared with $217.5 million as of Dec 31, 2020. The company’s total borrowings, net of debt issuance costs, stood at $297 million as of Mar 31, 2021.
The company generated $98.7 million cash from operations during the quarter under review compared with $37.8 million in the previous quarter. Free cash flow was $100 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2021.
The company did not repurchase any shares in first three quarters of fiscal 2021. The company also stated that it was unlikely to meet its targeted $200-million buyback in fiscal 2021.
A Look at Fiscal 2021 View
Due to reimposition of lockdown in several parts of the world like India and Europe due to alarming COVID-19 situation as well as cautious spending patterns of customers in the chemical and refining industry that was hit hard by the polar vortex weather event in United States in February this year, management has adopted a cautious stance regarding fiscal 2021 outlook.
For fiscal 2021, Aspen Technology now expects revenues in the range of $705-$729 million compared with $731-$760 million guided earlier.
Further, annual spend growth rate for fiscal 2021 is now expected to be between 4% and 5.5% compared with the previous range of 6-8%.
Total bookings are expected in the range of $771-$809 million compared with $805-$850 million guided previously.
Non-GAAP net income is anticipated in the range of $4.98-$5.22 per share. The company’s earlier guidance for non-GAAP net income per share was $5.29-$5.58.
Management now projects non-GAAP operating income in the range of $395-$415 million as against earlier guided range of $418-$442 million. Free cash flow is anticipated between $265 million and $275 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -9.73% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Aspen Technology has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Aspen Technology has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Aspen Technology (AZPN) Up 5.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Aspen Technology (AZPN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Aspen Technology due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Aspen Lags Q3 Earnings & Revenue Estimates
Aspen Technology reported third-quarter fiscal 2021 non-GAAP earnings of $1.05 per share that missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.5%. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of 72 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Revenues of $162.7 million also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9%. The company reported revenues of $130.6 million in the year-ago quarter.
The year-over-year upside in top line was owing to increases in total bookings. In the quarter under review, the company noted that alarming COVID situation in several parts of the world along with the polar vortex weather event in February negatively impacted refining and chemicals industry and in turn affected transaction closings.
Total bookings were $175.6 million, up 39% year over year on the back of higher renewal activity.
Quarter in Detail
License revenues (67.7% of revenues) rallied 40.8% year over year to $110.1 million.
Maintenance revenues (28.2%) increased 3.8% year over year to $45.9 million.
Services and other revenues (4.1%) declined 18.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $6.7 million.
As of Mar 31, 2021, the annual spend (which Aspen Technology defines as the annualized value of all term license and maintenance contracts at the end of the quarter) amounted to $609.9 million, up 6% year over year and 1% quarter over quarter.
Margins
Gross profit increased 27.7% year over year to $146.7 million. As a percentage of total revenues, the figure expanded 210 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis to 90.1%.
Total operating expenses increased 10.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $77.8 million due to increase in general & administrative expenses, research and development as well as selling and marketing.
Non-GAAP operating income of $80.9 million compared with $53.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin was 49.7% compared with 41.3% operating margin reported in the year-ago quarter.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
As of Mar 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $317.1 million compared with $217.5 million as of Dec 31, 2020. The company’s total borrowings, net of debt issuance costs, stood at $297 million as of Mar 31, 2021.
The company generated $98.7 million cash from operations during the quarter under review compared with $37.8 million in the previous quarter. Free cash flow was $100 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2021.
The company did not repurchase any shares in first three quarters of fiscal 2021. The company also stated that it was unlikely to meet its targeted $200-million buyback in fiscal 2021.
A Look at Fiscal 2021 View
Due to reimposition of lockdown in several parts of the world like India and Europe due to alarming COVID-19 situation as well as cautious spending patterns of customers in the chemical and refining industry that was hit hard by the polar vortex weather event in United States in February this year, management has adopted a cautious stance regarding fiscal 2021 outlook.
For fiscal 2021, Aspen Technology now expects revenues in the range of $705-$729 million compared with $731-$760 million guided earlier.
Further, annual spend growth rate for fiscal 2021 is now expected to be between 4% and 5.5% compared with the previous range of 6-8%.
Total bookings are expected in the range of $771-$809 million compared with $805-$850 million guided previously.
Non-GAAP net income is anticipated in the range of $4.98-$5.22 per share. The company’s earlier guidance for non-GAAP net income per share was $5.29-$5.58.
Management now projects non-GAAP operating income in the range of $395-$415 million as against earlier guided range of $418-$442 million. Free cash flow is anticipated between $265 million and $275 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -9.73% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Aspen Technology has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Aspen Technology has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.