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Welcome to Episode #438 of the Value Investor Podcast.
Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio, shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.
Recently, Tracey spotted a tweet from @darrenv96 on X talking about his long-term investment in Apple (AAPL - Free Report) . He posted a screenshot of his Apple position, including the date he bought, the cost basis, and the gain.
For years, Tracey tried to find investors who had bought the IPOs of prominent technology companies like Apple and Microsoft. They were some of the best performing stocks of the last few decades.
But Apple IPO’d in 1980, so the odds that someone still owned the shares, who wasn’t an early employee, are slim.
Did You Buy Apple Stock When You Bought Your First iPhone?
However, many investors buy a stock because they like the product. In the case of Apple, there were a lot of product launches that made fans including the iPod, the iPad and the iPhone.
The iPhone was introduced at Macworld on Jan 9, 2007. It became available to the public on June 29, 2007. It’s likely that some investors bought Apple shares around the time of the iPhone launch because they just loved their phone so much and wanted to be a part of it.
But did they hold onto the shares through the ups and downs, including the financial crisis, the death of Steve Jobs, and the COVID pandemic?
Investing in Apple for the Long Term
@darrenv96 was an investor who bought shares in 2005, before the iPhone, and held on. Not only that, but he also bought four more times over the years.
According to his tweet, he first bought shares on Mar 3, 2005, with a cost basis of $919.78. He then added to the position on Sep 29, 2008, during the height of the financial crisis with stocks sinking, when his cost basis was $10,788.99.
2008 was a tough year for stocks. Apple fell 57% that year while the S&P 500 was down 37%. But it created a buying opportunity. Since Apr 2008, Apple is up 4,852%.
According to @darrenv96’s tweet, he had a gain of $159,580.73 on his initial 2005 investment and a $734,487.01 gain on the 2008 investment.
That’s what Tracey calls a “lottery stock” due to the size of the return. But that is only if you held on for 21 years as @darrenv96 did.
The Case of Amazon in the Last 5 and 10 Years
I know you are thinking that all you had to do was buy any of the Magnificent 7 stocks years ago and hold them and you’d be outperforming the S&P 500.
Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) has been a big winner since it’s 1996 IPO. But over the last 5 years, it has lagged, with a return of 61% compared to 71% for the S&P 500.
Go further out, however, and the returns improve. Since 2016, Amazon is up 786% compared to 246% in the S&P 500. Timing, apparently, matters. But most investors have little control over that.
Starbucks: Underperformance Over the Last Decade
Not every popular stock has returns like Apple or Amazon. This is what makes investing so difficult.
Tracey bought Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) shares in her personal portfolio in 2012. Since 2012, Starbucks shares have outperformed, gaining 468% versus just 323% for the S&P 500.
But in the last 10 years, the shares have lagged. And lagged badly. Since 2016, Starbucks is up 50% but the S&P 500 is up 246%. None of these numbers include dividends.
Starbucks has a new CEO who has a turnaround strategy for the company. It recently beat on earnings for the first time in five quarters. Earnings are also expected to grow in 2026, up 3.3%, after declining the prior two years.
Shares of Starbucks are trading near 52-week highs.
The Difficulty of Long-Term Investing
Warren Buffett bought Apple shares in 2016. He sold a big chunk of them starting in the fourth quarter of 2023 through 2025. He started selling just 7 years after he bought in. By 2026, he had sold two-thirds of his position. The money from the sales is sitting in cash and treasuries.
While Buffett has a history of buying and holding for decades, he didn’t even hold onto the Apple position for a full 10 years.
It’s difficult to hold for long periods of time. Investors need patience, and a strong stomach. They have to hold through recessions, market plunges, changes in leadership, and geopolitical events like wars and assassinations.
How long have you held a stock? The average time an investor holds a stock is now less than 3 months.
What Else Should You Know About Owning Stocks for the Long Term?
Tune into this week’s podcast to find out.
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How Long Have You Owned a Stock?
Key Takeaways
Welcome to Episode #438 of the Value Investor Podcast.
Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio, shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.
Recently, Tracey spotted a tweet from @darrenv96 on X talking about his long-term investment in Apple (AAPL - Free Report) . He posted a screenshot of his Apple position, including the date he bought, the cost basis, and the gain.
For years, Tracey tried to find investors who had bought the IPOs of prominent technology companies like Apple and Microsoft. They were some of the best performing stocks of the last few decades.
But Apple IPO’d in 1980, so the odds that someone still owned the shares, who wasn’t an early employee, are slim.
Did You Buy Apple Stock When You Bought Your First iPhone?
However, many investors buy a stock because they like the product. In the case of Apple, there were a lot of product launches that made fans including the iPod, the iPad and the iPhone.
The iPhone was introduced at Macworld on Jan 9, 2007. It became available to the public on June 29, 2007. It’s likely that some investors bought Apple shares around the time of the iPhone launch because they just loved their phone so much and wanted to be a part of it.
But did they hold onto the shares through the ups and downs, including the financial crisis, the death of Steve Jobs, and the COVID pandemic?
Investing in Apple for the Long Term
@darrenv96 was an investor who bought shares in 2005, before the iPhone, and held on. Not only that, but he also bought four more times over the years.
According to his tweet, he first bought shares on Mar 3, 2005, with a cost basis of $919.78. He then added to the position on Sep 29, 2008, during the height of the financial crisis with stocks sinking, when his cost basis was $10,788.99.
2008 was a tough year for stocks. Apple fell 57% that year while the S&P 500 was down 37%. But it created a buying opportunity. Since Apr 2008, Apple is up 4,852%.
According to @darrenv96’s tweet, he had a gain of $159,580.73 on his initial 2005 investment and a $734,487.01 gain on the 2008 investment.
That’s what Tracey calls a “lottery stock” due to the size of the return. But that is only if you held on for 21 years as @darrenv96 did.
The Case of Amazon in the Last 5 and 10 Years
I know you are thinking that all you had to do was buy any of the Magnificent 7 stocks years ago and hold them and you’d be outperforming the S&P 500.
Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) has been a big winner since it’s 1996 IPO. But over the last 5 years, it has lagged, with a return of 61% compared to 71% for the S&P 500.
Go further out, however, and the returns improve. Since 2016, Amazon is up 786% compared to 246% in the S&P 500. Timing, apparently, matters. But most investors have little control over that.
Starbucks: Underperformance Over the Last Decade
Not every popular stock has returns like Apple or Amazon. This is what makes investing so difficult.
Tracey bought Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) shares in her personal portfolio in 2012. Since 2012, Starbucks shares have outperformed, gaining 468% versus just 323% for the S&P 500.
But in the last 10 years, the shares have lagged. And lagged badly. Since 2016, Starbucks is up 50% but the S&P 500 is up 246%. None of these numbers include dividends.
Starbucks has a new CEO who has a turnaround strategy for the company. It recently beat on earnings for the first time in five quarters. Earnings are also expected to grow in 2026, up 3.3%, after declining the prior two years.
Shares of Starbucks are trading near 52-week highs.
The Difficulty of Long-Term Investing
Warren Buffett bought Apple shares in 2016. He sold a big chunk of them starting in the fourth quarter of 2023 through 2025. He started selling just 7 years after he bought in. By 2026, he had sold two-thirds of his position. The money from the sales is sitting in cash and treasuries.
While Buffett has a history of buying and holding for decades, he didn’t even hold onto the Apple position for a full 10 years.
It’s difficult to hold for long periods of time. Investors need patience, and a strong stomach. They have to hold through recessions, market plunges, changes in leadership, and geopolitical events like wars and assassinations.
How long have you held a stock? The average time an investor holds a stock is now less than 3 months.
What Else Should You Know About Owning Stocks for the Long Term?
Tune into this week’s podcast to find out.