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Weekly Jobless Claims Hit New Post-Pandemic Low

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Initial Jobless Claims for last week have reached a new post-pandemic low to 348K this morning, nicely beneath expectations and the previous week’s slightly upwardly revised 377K. This brings the three-week average new claims to its own post-pandemic low: 371K. In fact, this morning’s initial claims report notches the new Covid low total 20K below the previous record. Very good news for the labor market.

Continuing Claims reached 2.82 million for a post-Covid low of its own. The previous week was upwardly revised from 2.87 million (at the time, this was the post-Covid low) to 2.90 million. This brings the trailing three-month average on longer-term jobless claims to an even 3.00 million. With continuing claims reporting a week in arrears from initial claims, is it too much to expect we might finally go sub-3 million next week?

The August Philly Fed survey, on the other hand, was disappointing: 19.4 was the lowest print of the year. This compares to the 48-year high we saw back in April of 50.2; today’s read indicates a slack in productivity we haven’t seen since December of last year. It’s also the fourth month in a row of declines for goods-producing in the country’s sixth-largest city. Is this simply a matter of working down higher inventories, or something else?

Retailers reporting quarterly earnings numbers ahead of the bell this morning have performed extremely well, including two big-box names that carried a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and Value-Growth-Momentum score of A into their earnings releases: Macy’s ((M - Free Report) and Kohl’s ((KSS - Free Report) .

Macy’s posted a 486% positive surprise for its latest quarter, with $1.29 per share clobbering the 22 cents expected, and easily outpacing the 81 cents per share the company made in the year-ago quarter. This marks the eighth-straight quarter of outperforming analysts’ earnings estimates. Revenues of $5.65 billion represents a 10.27% beat over the Zacks consensus. Shares are up more than 6% in early trading, more than 60% year to date.

Kohl’s also performed most impressively in its Q2 report this morning, with $2.48 per share well beyond the $1.30 analysts were expecting. Revenues in the quarter grew 31% to $4.45 billion, ahead of the $4.20 billion expected. This is Kohl’s fourth-straight earnings beat, with a trailing four-quarter average of higher than 100%. Shares have gained 27% year to date, and are up another 2% in early trading.

Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated Estee Lauder ((EL - Free Report) swept past estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning, reporting 78 cents per share on $3.94 billion in revenues — far outpacing the 51 cents per share and $3.74 billion analysts had been looking for. Skin, hair and fragrances were all up in the quarter, while makeup was down a bit. Full-year earnings guidance has now been raised to $7.23-7.38 per share, well ahead of the Zacks consensus $6.29. Shares are up 1% this morning.


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