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Why Is Alkermes (ALKS) Up 19.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Alkermes (ALKS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 19.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Alkermes due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Alkermes Beats on Q2 Earnings & Sales, Ups ‘21 View

Alkermes reported second-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 12 cents. The bottom line improved 400% year over year.

The company’s revenues of $303.7 million increased 22.7% from the year-ago quarter. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $277.83 million.

Quarter in Detail

Total manufacturing and royalty revenues were up 22% year over year to $142.3 million. The increase was primarily driven by Vumerity revenues, which soared 680% from the prior-year quarter to $20.3 million.

Sales of proprietary drugs Vivitrol (for alcohol and opioid dependence) and Aristada (for schizophrenia) increased approximately 23% year over year to $88.4 million and $72.4 million, respectively. This increase is attributable to positive recovery from COVID-impacts.

R&D expenses were $97.5 million, up 3.5% year over year.

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $139.2 million, up 5.5% year over year. The expenses include incremental investments to support Lybalvi’s approaching launch.

As of Jun 30, 2021, Alkermes had cash and cash equivalents worth $669.4 million compared with $627.4 million on Mar 31, 2021. Total outstanding debt was $297.1 million as of Jun 30, 2021.

Pipeline Updates

In June 2021, the FDA approved the company's NDA for Lybalvi (ALKS 3831) for the treatment of adults with schizophrenia and adults suffering from bipolar I disorder. It anticipates commercial launch for the drug in fourth-quarter 2021.

An important candidate in Alkermes’ pipeline is cancer immunotherapy, nemvaleukin alfa (ALKS 4230), which is being evaluated under the ARTISTRY Clinical Development Program. The candidate is currently undergoing multiple studies for treating patients with solid tumors. The company also initiated a phase II ARTISTRY-6 study to evaluate anti-tumor activity, safety and tolerability of nemvaleukin alfa monotherapy in melanoma patients in April 2021.

It has also partnered with pharma giant, Merck, for a phase III ARTISTRY-7 study to evaluate nemvaleukin alfa in combination with Keytruda for treating patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. Alkermes aims to offset significant R&D expenses with this partnership.

Raised 2021 Guidance

Backed by persistent recovery from COVID-19 impacts, Alkermes raised its guidance for 2021 revenues and adjusted earnings on second-quarter earnings call.

Alkermes expects revenues in the range of $1,145-$1,185 million, up from the previous guided range of $1,100-$1,170 million due to recovery from COVID-19 impacts. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $1,150 million. While Vivitrol net sales are expected within $330-$345 million, Aristada net sales are expected in the band of $275-$290 million. Lybalvi net sales are expected to be less than $10 million.

Adjusted EPS is anticipated within $0.52-$0.70 per share, up from the previously guided range of $0.37-$0.62. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for earnings stands at $0.48 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 29.73% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Alkermes has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Alkermes has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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