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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) Up 11.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 11.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Magnolia Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Magnolia reported second-quarter adjusted net income per share of 56 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents. The bottom line reversed the year-ago quarter’s loss of 8 cents per share.

This outperformance can be primarily attributed to better-than-anticipated production volumes. The South Texas-focused company’s average daily oil output of 31,897 barrels per day surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30,734 barrels.

Total revenues came in at $250.73 million, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $229 million. Moreover, the top line rose 202.7% from the year-ago level of $82.84 million.

Production & Prices

Magnolia’s oil and gas production reported a year-over-year increase of 1.25% to 64,946 boe per day (comprising 72% liquids). Oil volumes at 31,897 barrels per day were down 6% from the level achieved in second-quarter 2020.

The average realized crude oil price during the second quarter was $64.80 per barrel, reflecting a 229.2% rise from the year-ago period’s realization of $19.68. The average realized natural gas liquids price was $22.26 per barrel, up 181.1% from the year-ago period’s tally while natural gas prices increased 142.9% year over year to $3.28 per thousand cubic feet. Overall, the company fetched $42.42 per boe compared with $14.19 a year ago.

Balance Sheet & Capital Expenditure

As of Jun 30, Magnolia had $190.3 million in cash and cash equivalents. The oil explorer’s long-term debt of $387 million represented a debt-to-capitalization of 31.5%. In the reported quarter, the company spent around $54 million on its capital program.

Guidance

Magnolia plans to spend around $150-$175 million on drilling and completion activities for the latter half of the year.

Total output in the third quarter of 2021 is expected to be around 67,000 boe/d, implying a 3% rise from the second-quarter reported level.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 23.32% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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