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Community Financial (TCFC) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

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Shares of The Community Financial have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 2.8% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $39.26 in the previous session. The Community Financial has gained 44% since the start of the year compared to the 24.6% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 42.9% return for the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on October 25, 2021, Community Financial reported EPS of $1.12 versus consensus estimate of $1.11.

For the current fiscal year, Community Financial is expected to post earnings of $4.38 per share on $73.1 million in revenues. This represents a 59.85% change in EPS on a 5.43% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $3.85 per share on $71.49 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -12.1% and -2.2%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Community Financial may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Community Financial has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 8.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 11.8X versus its peer group's average of 12.3X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Community Financial currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Community Financial passes the test. Thus, it seems as though Community Financial shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

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