A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Antero Resources (AR Quick QuoteAR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 23.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Resources due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Antero Resources Misses on Q4 Earnings Estimates

Antero Resources reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings per share of 46 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 64 cents.  However, the bottom line turned around from the year-ago loss of 5 cents.

Total quarterly revenues of $2,394 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,469 million. The top line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $1,309 million.

The lower-than-expected earnings can be attributed to lower gas-equivalent production volumes. The positives were partially offset by higher realizations of commodity prices.

Overall Production

Total production through the December-end quarter was recorded at 294 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), which declined 13% from 336 Bcfe a year ago. Natural gas production (accounting for 69.7% of the total output) fell 9% year over year to 205 Bcf.

Oil production for the fourth quarter was 689 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 38% from 1,104 MBbls in the prior-year period. Its production of 4,130 MBbls of C2 Ethane was 18% lower than 5,023 MBbls in the year-ago quarter. The company’s output of 9,872 MBbls of C3+ NGLs for the quarter was 19% lower than 12,174 MBbls a year ago.

Realized Prices (Excluding Derivative Settlements)

Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization for the quarter was $6.48 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), higher than the year-earlier figure of $2.96. Realized prices for natural gas rose 124% to $5.89 per Mcf from $2.63 a year ago.

The company’s oil price realization for the quarter was $69.53 per barrel (Bbl), up 126% from $30.83 a year ago. Its realized price for C3+ NGLs improved to $58.25 per Bbl from $27.64 in the prior-year quarter. Realized price for C2 Ethane increased 202% to $16.81 per Bbl from $5.56 a year ago.

Operating Expenses

Total operating expenses for the quarter under review declined 2% to $1,137.9 million from $1,163.9 million in the year-ago period.

Average lease operating costs for the quarter were 9 cents per Mcfe, up 13% year over year. The same for gathering and compression rose 11% year over year to 72 cents per Mcfe.

Transportation expenses rose 13% from the prior-year quarter to 76 cents per Mcfe. Processing costs increased 3% year over year to 65 cents.

Capex & Financials

For drilling and completion operations, the company spent $152 million through fourth-quarter 2021. As of Dec 31, 2021, Antero had no cash and cash equivalents. It had long-term debt of $2.1 billion, with a debt to capitalization of 27%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10.51% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Antero Resources has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Antero Resources has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.