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Booking Holdings (BKNG) Down 1.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Booking Holdings (BKNG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Booking Holdings due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Booking Holdings Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

Booking Holdings reported non-GAAP earnings of $15.83 per share in fourth-quarter 2021, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 24.3%. Further, the figure compares favorably with the loss of 57 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

However, the bottom line declined 58% from the previous quarter.

Revenues of $2.98 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.9 billion. The top line improved 140.7% year over year on a reported basis and 146% on a constant-currency (cc) basis.

However, the top-line figure fell 36.2% sequentially.

Improving travel demand and booking trends from the year-ago quarter were tailwinds.

Booking Holdings witnessed growth of 35.8% in rental car on a year-over-year basis. The company also experienced 108% year-over-year growth in the airline tickets unit in the reported quarter.

Booked room night number, which was 151 million in the fourth quarter, surged 99.9% from the prior-year quarter.

The company witnessed strong growth across its agency, merchant, and advertising and other businesses in the reported quarter.

However, the rapidly spreading Omicron variant of coronavirus, which affected global travel demand at the end of the reported quarter, was a headwind.

Nevertheless, the ongoing vaccination drive and strengthening confidence for travel among people amid the pandemic remains a major positive.

Top Line in Detail

The company generates the bulk of revenues from international markets, wherein the agency model is more popular. This is reflected in the merchant/agency split of revenues, which was 34.9/58.7% in the fourth quarter (the previous quarter’s split was 34.7/61.3%)

Agency revenues were $1.75 billion, up 116.2% year over year. Merchant revenues were $1.04 billion, up 176.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Advertising & Other revenues were $190 million (6.4% of total revenues), increasing significantly from $52 million in the year-ago quarter.

Bookings

Booking Holdings’ overall gross bookings totaled $19.01 billion, which increased 160% on a reported and 164% on a cc basis from the year-ago quarter.

Total gross bookings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.9 billion.

Merchant bookings were $7.14 billion, up 222.2% from the prior-year quarter.

Agency bookings were $11.9 billion, rising 132.9% from the prior-year quarter.

Operating Results

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter was $940 million against a loss of $38 million in the prior-year quarter.

Per management, operating expenses were $2.1 billion, up 53.3% on a year-over-year basis. As a percentage of revenues, the figure contracted significantly to 71.6% from 112.4% in the year-ago quarter.

Notably, the company generated an operating income of $848 million against a loss of $153 million in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $11.13 billion, down from $11.6 billion as of Sep 30, 2021.

Short-term investments amounted to $25 million in the reported quarter compared with $522 million in the previous quarter.

At the end of the fourth quarter, Booking Holdings had $8.94 billion of long-term debt compared with $9.89 billion at the end of the third quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -125.55% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Booking Holdings has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Booking Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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