What happens across this Global Week Ahead?

• Shuttle diplomacy reaches a peak, in the week to come, as U.S. President Donald Trump heads to China; and his Treasury Secretary visits Japan.
• Macro data from Anglosphere economies, the U.S. & U.K., and the Eurozone, could sharpen the contours of the Middle East conflict's economic impact.
• Oil production heavyweight Saudi Aramco, reports Q1 earnings results, against this brittle backdrop.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent visits Japan. Then heads to China.

Japan current account numbers on Wednesday and earnings from the Japanese megabanks out over the week will offer a pulse check on how the country's export-heavy economy is faring as the Iran war drags on.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's April meeting summary will be released after not one but three dissenting voices — giving investors a closer look at how fractured the policy debate has become.

Bond investors will also digest sales of 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds, a test of appetite for long-dated debt after suspected official interventions in Tokyo to boost the yen over the last fortnight.

And U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Japan's prime minister, central bank governor, and finance minister, when he begins a visit to Japan on Monday, before heading to China.
 

(2) Across Thursday & Friday, May 14-15, President Trump visits Beijing, China.

The U.S. President visits Beijing on ‌May 14-15, his first China visit in eight years.

He will try to lock in the trade truce agreed in October in South Korea, and avoid a rerun of the tit-for-tat tariff battle that he set off on "Liberation Day" in April 2025.

Taiwan could also feature when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The context is far from calm.

Chinese exports are booming, with the trade surplus at the end of 2025 roughly the size of the Dutch economy, while factory activity has expanded since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, private and official surveys show.

Trade data due this weekend should offer a reality check on whether a protectionist White House has managed to dent Americans' appetite for Chinese-made goods.
 

(3) On Tuesday, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April comes out.

A data-heavy week ahead should give a clearer sense of how much the war-driven spike in energy prices is stoking inflation in the world's largest economy — and whether consumers are losing their appetite to spend.

Tuesday's U.S. April consumer price index is expected to rise +0.6% after March's +0.9% jump, the biggest increase in almost four years, according to a Reuters poll. Pump prices are likely to loom large in the numbers.

Producer price data for April on Wednesday is another inflation checkpoint after ‌the Fed’s last meeting exposed a more hawkish tilt among some policymakers who are increasingly uneasy about price pressures.

Retail sales figures on Thursday should show whether higher gas and other costs are starting to bite into household spending.
 

(4) On Sunday, the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil reported Q1 results.

The world's biggest exporter of crude oil, Saudi Aramco, reported first-quarter results on Sunday. Profits jumped +26% for the quarter, beating expectations, but the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would reportedly cause ther global oil market to lose 100 million barrels of oil per week. 

The more than two-month-old war in Iran has caused some 20 oil refineries in the region to be damaged or shut down, taking millions of barrels of capacity offline and pushing oil prices sharply higher.

Progress to end the war in the Middle East has been slow.

Clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Gulf in recent days are endangering a month-old ceasefire and shaking hopes for a diplomatic solution.

All this comes as Washington awaits a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict - an outline for a temporary agreement expected to leave many of the most contentious issues unresolved.
 

(5) On Thursday, U.K. March macroeconomic growth data lands.

Investors will parse Britain's March growth data on Thursday for the first official signs of the extent of the economic damage from the Iran war.

The release coincides with the first-quarter figures, though those may flatter to deceive after a punchy February.

Britain looks vulnerable.

The IMF gave it the biggest growth downgrade among big economies for this year, cutting its forecast to +0.8% from +1.3%.

Borrowing costs have jumped more than anywhere else among the Group of Seven advanced economies as higher energy prices feed through.

Any signs of weakening growth would land at an awkward political moment. Local elections have dealt a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labor Party, raising doubts about his leadership.

Markets will also watch for revisions in the second read-out of Eurozone growth first quarter on Wednesday, which had come in at a meagre +0.1%.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Next are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks, benefitting last week, from fresh covering analyst earnings upgrades.

(1) Cummins (CMI Quick QuoteCMI - Free Report) : This is a $683 a share stock, with a market cap of $94.2B.

It is found in Zacks Automotive – Internal Combustion Engine industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

F12M P/E: 24.5.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Cummins Inc. is a leading global designer, manufacturer and distributor of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related component products.

Powertrain components include fuel systems, turbochargers, transmissions, batteries and electrified power systems, among others.

Headquartered in Columbus, IN, the company offers products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and dealers through a network of roughly 650 company-owned and independent distributor facilities in over 19,000 dealer locations in more than 190 countries and territories.

The acquisition of Meritor in 2022 has enhanced CMI’s position as a top provider of integrated powertrain solutions for both internal combustion and electric vehicles. This deal expanded Cummins’ components business, opening up new growth avenues.

Cummins has the following five operating segments:

The Engine segment (24.1% of consolidated net sales in 2025) produces diesel and natural gas-based engines for on-highway and industrial markets. The engines are used in heavy and medium-duty trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, and various industrial applications in the construction, mining, agriculture, marine, oil and gas, rail, defense and agricultural markets.

The Distribution segment (36.8%) is the company’s primary sales, service and support channel. It operates through a worldwide network of wholly owned, joint venture and independent distribution locations that offer a varied range of products and services, including power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and heavy-duty and medium-duty engines.

The Components segment (25.7%) has five businesses, namely, Emission solutions, Turbo technologies, Electronics and fuel systems, and Automated transmissions.

The Power Systems segment (12.2%) sells power generators, diesel and natural gas high-horsepower engines, and AC generator or alternator products for internal consumption and external generator set assemblers. The unit houses the Power Generation, Industrial and Generator Technologies product lines.

The Accelera segment (1.2%) designs, manufactures, sells, and supports hydrogen production systems, as well as electrified power systems, ranging from fully electric to hybrid, along with innovative components and sub-systems.

(2) Suncor Energy (SU Quick QuoteSU - Free Report) : This is a $64 a Canadian oil & gas stock, with a market cap of $75.4B.

This company is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas Integrated – Canadian industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

F12M P/E: 9.5.

 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Suncor Energy, Inc. is a premier integrated energy company.

The company's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore crude oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing. Suncor is one of the largest owners of oil sands in the world.

The company has gained new oil sands properties to supplement its existing operations in northern Alberta.

Suncor's business can be divided into three main segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.

Oil Sands segment mines and upgrades oil sands in Canada's Alberta province to produce refinery-ready synthetic crude oil.

Exploration and Production includes offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea, and onshore operations in Libya and Syria.

The company also owns oilfields in Sirte Basin in Libya and stakes in Elba gas development in Syria.

Refined products from refineries are marketed through Sunoco and Petro-Canada branded retail outlets.

(3) ASE Technology (ASX Quick QuoteASX - Free Report) : This is a cheap $33 a share semi electronics stock, with a market cap of $74.1B.

It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Semiconductor industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

F12M P/E: 31.8.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd. is a provider of semiconductor manufacturing services in assembly and testing.

The company develops and offers complete turnkey solutions covering front-end engineering testing, wafer probing and final testing as well as IC packaging, materials and electronic manufacturing services.

It operates primarily in Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Mexico, United States and Europe.

ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd, formerly known as ASE Industrial Holding Co., is based in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
 

Key Global Macro

Shedding light on the broadening effects of the global oil shock, the April U.S. CPI and PPI data stand out as the key global/macro prints this week.

On Monday, U.S. existing home sales for April come out. Expect 4.05M this month, after 3.98M was reported the prior month.

On Tuesday, the U.S. CPI for April comes out. The consensus is for a +0.6% m/m rise, following a swift +0.9% m/m rise the Iran-conflict hit month prior. The annual ex-food & energy CPI prior is a very hot +3.3% y/y.

On Wednesday, preliminary Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone comes out. A +0.8% preliminary real GDP growth rate is the consensus, following a prior +0.8% the quarter before.

Q1 U.K. real GDP growth data also comes out. The prior here was +1.0% y/y.

The ECB’s LaGarde gives a speech.

The U.S. PPI data for April comes out. The prior annual ex food & energy data was also hot at +3.8% y/y.

On Thursday, U.S. retail sales data for April comes out. Ex-autos went up +1.9% y/y in the month prior. The broader data was up +1.7% y/y.

On Friday, U.S. industrial production data for April comes out. The prior month’s reading was a tepid -0.5%.

U.S. capacity utilization was running at a 75.7% rate last month. This U.S. macro data gets an update too.
 

Conclusion

This week, Q1-26 S&P500 earnings reports remain a stock trader focus.

On May 6th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q1 EPS update —

Here are his four key points:

(1) Total Q1 earnings for the 392 S&P500 companies that have already reported results are up +21.7% from the same period last year, on +10.5% higher revenues.

80.1% beat EPS estimates. 77.8% beat revenue estimates.

This is a better showing from these companies, relative to other recent periods.

(2) The Tech sector has been a critical growth pillar since Q3-23 and is expected to play that role in Q1-26 as well, with expected earnings growth of +50.1%.

Excluding the Tech sector’s substantial contribution, Q1 earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 index would be +11.1% (versus +24.2% otherwise).

(3) Q1 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +45.7% from the same period last year, on +24.6% higher revenues.

Excluding the ‘Mag 7’ contribution, Q4 earnings for the rest of the index would be up only +17.1% (versus +24.2%).

(4) The aggregate earnings total for Q1-26 is on track to be a new all-time quarterly record at $690.4 billion, surpassing the record set in the preceding quarter at $655.5 billion.

In light of this strong Q1 earnings data, presented alongside three momentum-traded major large-cap stocks, from hot industry groups?

Here is a big trading idea:

Is all of this great fundamental U.S. earnings data fully priced in — and then some?

Enjoy the week.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist