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Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Allegiant Incurs Loss in Q1
Allegiant's incurred an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share in the first quarter of 2022 that compared unfavorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 10 cents. In the year-ago period, the company had incurred an adjusted loss of $3.58 per share due to the coronavirus-led significantly suppressed air-travel demand.
Operating revenues of $500 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $495 million and increased 79.2% year over year. The same climbed 10.7% from the first quarter of 2019.
Quarter in Details
Passenger revenues, which accounted for a bulk (92.8%) of the top line, surged 80.7% on a year-over-year basis (up 10.5% from the 2019 level). The upside can be attributed to improvement in air-travel demand.
Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles or RPMs) for scheduled service surged 64.2% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) increased 15.1% year over year. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) widened 2360 basis points to 78.9% in the reported quarter, as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion.
Operating cost per available seat miles (CASM), excluding fuel, surged 66.4% year over year to 7.12 cents. Average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) surged 65.1% to $3.07 in the quarter. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles (TRASM) rose 56.5% to 10.78 cents.
Liquidity
As of Mar 31, 2022, Allegiant’s unrestricted cash and investments totaled $1,212 million compared with $1,182.8 million at the end of December 2021. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) came in at $1,634.5 million compared with $1,612.5 million at the end of 2021.
Q2 Guidance
Allegiant expects total system capacity to increase 9-13% in the second quarter of 2022 from the comparable period in 2019. Scheduled service capacity is estimated to rise 10-14% from the 2019 level. Total operating revenues are predicted to climb 28-32% from the comparable period in 2019. CASM, excluding fuel, is forecast to rise 12-16% from the second quarter of 2019. Fuel cost per gallon is estimated to be $4.
2022 Guidance
For 2022, Allegiant expects capital expenditures for aircraft, engines, induction costs and pre-delivery deposits to be $255-$265 million. Interest expenses are forecast to be $85-$95 million in 2022.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 46.75% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Allegiant Travel has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2022 more than a month ago.
Hawaiian Holdings reported revenues of $477.21 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +161.9%. EPS of -$2.54 for the same period compares with -$3.85 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Hawaiian Holdings is expected to post a loss of $1.05 per share, indicating a change of +27.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Hawaiian Holdings. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Allegiant Incurs Loss in Q1
Allegiant's incurred an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share in the first quarter of 2022 that compared unfavorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 10 cents. In the year-ago period, the company had incurred an adjusted loss of $3.58 per share due to the coronavirus-led significantly suppressed air-travel demand.
Operating revenues of $500 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $495 million and increased 79.2% year over year. The same climbed 10.7% from the first quarter of 2019.
Quarter in Details
Passenger revenues, which accounted for a bulk (92.8%) of the top line, surged 80.7% on a year-over-year basis (up 10.5% from the 2019 level). The upside can be attributed to improvement in air-travel demand.
Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles or RPMs) for scheduled service surged 64.2% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) increased 15.1% year over year. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) widened 2360 basis points to 78.9% in the reported quarter, as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion.
Operating cost per available seat miles (CASM), excluding fuel, surged 66.4% year over year to 7.12 cents. Average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) surged 65.1% to $3.07 in the quarter. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles (TRASM) rose 56.5% to 10.78 cents.
Liquidity
As of Mar 31, 2022, Allegiant’s unrestricted cash and investments totaled $1,212 million compared with $1,182.8 million at the end of December 2021. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) came in at $1,634.5 million compared with $1,612.5 million at the end of 2021.
Q2 Guidance
Allegiant expects total system capacity to increase 9-13% in the second quarter of 2022 from the comparable period in 2019. Scheduled service capacity is estimated to rise 10-14% from the 2019 level. Total operating revenues are predicted to climb 28-32% from the comparable period in 2019. CASM, excluding fuel, is forecast to rise 12-16% from the second quarter of 2019. Fuel cost per gallon is estimated to be $4.
2022 Guidance
For 2022, Allegiant expects capital expenditures for aircraft, engines, induction costs and pre-delivery deposits to be $255-$265 million. Interest expenses are forecast to be $85-$95 million in 2022.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 46.75% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Allegiant Travel has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2022 more than a month ago.
Hawaiian Holdings reported revenues of $477.21 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +161.9%. EPS of -$2.54 for the same period compares with -$3.85 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Hawaiian Holdings is expected to post a loss of $1.05 per share, indicating a change of +27.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Hawaiian Holdings. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.