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Retail Sales for September help bring this impactful week in the markets to a close, coming in flat (0.0%) month over month, down from an upwardly revised +0.4% reported a month ago. Stripping out volatile motor vehicle sales in the month, this figure adds up to +0.1%, swinging from an upwardly revised -0.1% in August.
Digging a little further, ex-autos and gas, we see +0.3%, with the Control print (which finds its way further up the economic chain into other data) at +0.4%. This is likely the last month for the next quarter-year or so that won’t include holiday shopping season aspects, so results in a more “pure” read. And flat on Retail Sales for the month is a pretty good start in curbing inflation metrics on a wide scale. It’s also not yet registering the “pain” Fed Chair Jay Powell promised us.
We also saw a new September Import Price Index report out this morning, which came in at -1.2%, slightly deeper than the -1.1% we were expecting and the -1.1% downward revision the previous month. Our worst month for Import Prices this cycle was -1.5% back in July. Ex-petrol, this figure stands at -0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, +6.0%, while still relatively high, is well off the +7.8% we saw in August and the cycle-high +13% in March of this year.
Exports came in well below the expected -0.1% to -0.8% last month, with year-over-year coming in hotter than expected at +9.5%. Still frustratingly high, but markedly off the +10.7% for August and May’s high +18.6%. We can see things are mellowing out for imports and exports; a global trade situation cooling off is a good step in the right direction for curbing inflation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) posted a +5.4% beat on Q3 earnings this morning, $3.12 per share versus $2.96 expected. Revenues of $32.72 billion were +1.2% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares are up +1% in pre-market trading, but still down nearly -30% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) had arguably even a better quarter, with $1.30 per share taking out the $1.09 expected, for a +19.27% positive surprise (following the previous quarter’s earnings miss). Revenues of $19.51 billion easily surpassed the $18.72 billion expected, and swinging to positive year-over-year revenue growth, from an expected decline. Wells Fargo shares are up +3% on the news ahead of the opening bell. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also outperformed expectations this morning, albeit by thinner margins: $1.53 per share amounts to a 2-cent earnings beat, on revenues of $12.99 billion which actually missed the Zacks consensus by -1.16%. The investment bank’s shares are down -2.5% ahead of today’s open. For more on MS’ earnings, click here.
After the session gets started, we’ll get a fresh University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, complete with 5-year inflation expectations. Last time around, these came out +2.7%; it should be interesting to see where this number winds up today. Also Business Inventories report, and a winding-down of inventories overall will be another chunk of useful inflation data.
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Retail Sales Flat, JPM, WFC Beat on Q3 & More
Friday, October 14, 2022
Retail Sales for September help bring this impactful week in the markets to a close, coming in flat (0.0%) month over month, down from an upwardly revised +0.4% reported a month ago. Stripping out volatile motor vehicle sales in the month, this figure adds up to +0.1%, swinging from an upwardly revised -0.1% in August.
Digging a little further, ex-autos and gas, we see +0.3%, with the Control print (which finds its way further up the economic chain into other data) at +0.4%. This is likely the last month for the next quarter-year or so that won’t include holiday shopping season aspects, so results in a more “pure” read. And flat on Retail Sales for the month is a pretty good start in curbing inflation metrics on a wide scale. It’s also not yet registering the “pain” Fed Chair Jay Powell promised us.
We also saw a new September Import Price Index report out this morning, which came in at -1.2%, slightly deeper than the -1.1% we were expecting and the -1.1% downward revision the previous month. Our worst month for Import Prices this cycle was -1.5% back in July. Ex-petrol, this figure stands at -0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, +6.0%, while still relatively high, is well off the +7.8% we saw in August and the cycle-high +13% in March of this year.
Exports came in well below the expected -0.1% to -0.8% last month, with year-over-year coming in hotter than expected at +9.5%. Still frustratingly high, but markedly off the +10.7% for August and May’s high +18.6%. We can see things are mellowing out for imports and exports; a global trade situation cooling off is a good step in the right direction for curbing inflation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) posted a +5.4% beat on Q3 earnings this morning, $3.12 per share versus $2.96 expected. Revenues of $32.72 billion were +1.2% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares are up +1% in pre-market trading, but still down nearly -30% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) had arguably even a better quarter, with $1.30 per share taking out the $1.09 expected, for a +19.27% positive surprise (following the previous quarter’s earnings miss). Revenues of $19.51 billion easily surpassed the $18.72 billion expected, and swinging to positive year-over-year revenue growth, from an expected decline. Wells Fargo shares are up +3% on the news ahead of the opening bell. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also outperformed expectations this morning, albeit by thinner margins: $1.53 per share amounts to a 2-cent earnings beat, on revenues of $12.99 billion which actually missed the Zacks consensus by -1.16%. The investment bank’s shares are down -2.5% ahead of today’s open. For more on MS’ earnings, click here.
After the session gets started, we’ll get a fresh University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, complete with 5-year inflation expectations. Last time around, these came out +2.7%; it should be interesting to see where this number winds up today. Also Business Inventories report, and a winding-down of inventories overall will be another chunk of useful inflation data.
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