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What's in the Cards for Norfolk Southern's (NSC) Q3 Earnings?

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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 26, before market open.

The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 2.37%. Our estimate of $3.68 earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter indicates growth of 20.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for Norfolk Southern this earnings season.

Q3 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Norfolk Southern’s third-quarter 2022 revenues is pegged at $3.25 billion, indicating 13.89% growth year over year. Our estimate of $3.28 billion of revenues indicates growth of 15.1% from the year-ago reported figure. The top line is likely to have been aided by the strength across its all key segments — merchandise, intermodal and coal.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Merchandise revenues is pegged at $1,903 million, indicating 11.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $963 million, indicating 18.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter Coal revenues is pegged at $394 million, indicating 19.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

On the flip side, escalating operating expenses, primarily due to rising fuel prices, continue to bother NSC’s bottom line. Moreover, supply-chain disruptions and slower network velocity are expected to have weighed on volumes in the third quarter. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s third-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised downward by 1.1% in the past 90 days to $3.66.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of -0.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q2

Norfolk Southern second-quarter 2022 earnings of $3.45 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.44. Moreover, the bottom line improved 5.2% year over year.

Railway operating revenues in the quarter under review came in at $3,250 million, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,135.1 million. The top line increased 16.1% year over year, with all key segments — merchandise, intermodal and coal — registering an improvement in revenues. Revenue per unit rose 16% year over year.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on third-quarter 2022 earnings:

Copa Holdings (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. CPA will release results on Nov 16. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CPA has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 174.22%, on average.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. JBLU will release results on Oct 25.

JBLU has an expected earnings growth rate of 67.73% for the current year.

Shares of JBLU have lost 55.5% over the past year.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. UPS will release results on Oct 25.

United Parcel has an expected earnings growth rate of 5.8% for the current year. UPS delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.51%, on average.

UPS has a long-term earnings growth rate of 8.87%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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