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Can Copa Holdings (CPA) Surpass Earnings Estimate in Q4?

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Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 15, after the market close.

Copa has an impressive earning surprise history outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all four trailing quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $3.96 which is a 100% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The earnings consensus of the company has been revised upward by 10.31% in the past 60 days.

Let’s look at the factors that are expected to shape the fourth-quarter earnings of CPA

Improved air travel demand is expected to have aided the topline of Copa Holdings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of the company’s top line is currently pegged at $884.81 million which is an increase of 53.88% from the year-ago reported figure.

The expected improvement in the topline can be attributed to improved passenger volumes. Riding on the buoyant air-travel demand, traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) is expected to grow around 34% per the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis.

As per the  consensus estimate, capacity (measured in available seat miles) is expected to grow at the rate of 27.6% on a year-over-year basis. Moreover, the estimated increase for load factor and the passenger revenue per available seat miles is 4.8% and 21.3% on a year-over-year basis, respectively.

On the contrary, per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, cost per available seat mile is anticipated to be up by 28.7% considering the high jet fuel prices and increasing selling and distribution costs.

Copa Holdings, S.A. Price and EPS Surprise

Copa Holdings, S.A. Price and EPS Surprise

Copa Holdings, S.A. price-eps-surprise | Copa Holdings, S.A. Quote

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Copa Holdings this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Copa Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank of 1.

Highlights of Q3

Copa Holdings reported mixed third-quarter 2022 earnings reporting earnings of $2.91, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.63. Quarterly revenues of $809.4 million failed to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $816.2 million but managed to rise significantly year over year, courtesy of improved air-travel demand.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation which according to our model have the right combination of elements to beat on their fourth-quarter 2022 earnings.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB - Free Report) currently has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.29%.  WAB will release results on Feb 15.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.30 which is at 10.17% growth on a year-over-year basis. The company has a decent earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 0.62%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3. EXPD will release results on Feb 21.

The company has a current Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.88 which has been revised 0.53% upward in the past 60 days. EXPD has a stellar earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters by an average of 22.1%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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