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Can Rising Expenses Hurt Teladoc Health's (TDOC) Q1 Earnings?

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Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 26, after the closing bell.

What Do Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 51 cents per share for the first quarter has witnessed no upward revision but one downward movement in the past month. The consensus mark is indicative of an 8.5% deterioration from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure, while our estimate suggests a 14.6% deterioration.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $617.6 million, suggesting a jump of 9.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. We expect revenues to witness an 8.6% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reading.

Teladoc Health beat on earnings in all the trailing four quarters, the average being 22.8%. This is depicted in the graph below.

Teladoc Health, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Teladoc Health, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Teladoc Health, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Teladoc Health, Inc. Quote

Before we get into what to expect in the to-be-reported quarter in detail, it is worth taking a look at TDOC’s previous-quarter performance first.

Q4 Earnings Rewind

In the last reported quarter, the virtual healthcare services provider’s adjusted loss per share of 23 cents was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 27 cents. The quarterly results suffered from an elevated expense level, partly offset by strong growth in access fees and visits.

Now let’s see how things have shaped up before the first-quarter earnings announcement.

Q1 Factors to Note

Teladoc Health’s first-quarter revenues are likely to have gained from higher Access Fees. Multiple acquisitions are expected to have generated higher subscription access fees and growth in direct-to-consumer mental health sold on a subscription basis in the quarter under review.

Our estimate suggests Access Fees revenues of $534.9 million for the quarter under review, indicating an 8.9% increase from the prior-year quarter’s actual. We expect other revenues to jump 6.5% year over year in the first quarter. Our estimate for BetterHelp Paying Users for the first quarter suggests a 28.2% rise from that reported a year ago.

For first-quarter 2023, our estimate for total visits is pegged at more than 5 million, indicating an 11.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s 4.5 million. The factors stated above are likely to have poised TDOC well for revenue growth.

However, expenses (excluding goodwill impairments) are expected to have escalated in the quarter primarily due to higher advertising and marketing, technology, and development costs, causing a deterioration in profit levels from the year-earlier quarter’s actuals. This also makes an earnings beat uncertain.

The adjusted cost of goods sold is likely to have increased nearly 2% in the first quarter, while advertising and marketing costs are expected to have jumped almost 20%. Our estimate suggests a 17% rise in general and administrative expenses for the first quarter from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $122.8 million.

On the fourth-quarter earnings release, management expected total revenues of $610-$625 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $42-$50 million for first-quarter 2023. U.S. Integrated Care Members were forecast to be 84-85 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Teladoc Health this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -13.50%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 58 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 51 cents.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Teladoc Health currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Teladoc Health, here are some companies from the broader medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.16% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bio-Rad’s earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.24, which has been unchanged over the past week. BIO beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 27.5%.

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.36% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AstraZeneca’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 86 cents per share, which witnessed two upward estimate revisions in the past month against none in the opposite direction. AZN beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, the average surprise being 7.8%.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.84 per share, whereas the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $6.2 billion. AMGN beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, the average being 3.4%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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