We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Merck (MRK) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Merck (MRK - Free Report) will report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 1, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.48%.
Factors to Consider
Strong global underlying demand across its business, particularly for cancer drug Keytruda and HPV vaccine, Gardasil, is likely to have boosted sales growth in the second quarter like several previous quarters.
In oncology drugs, Keytruda sales are likely to have been driven by continued strong momentum in metastatic indications and rapid uptake across recent earlier-stage launches. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keytruda’s sales is $5.87 billion, while our estimate is $5.69 billion. However, Keytruda’s year-over-year growth rate in the United States is expected to have moderated in the second quarter as the impact of the strong initial uptake of earlier-stage indications softened. In outside U.S. markets, while volumes are expected to have remained strong, pricing is expected to have been a headwind.
Higher alliance revenues from Lynparza, driven by increased demand, may have boosted oncology sales. Please note that Merck markets Lynparza in partnership with AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) .
AstraZeneca and Merck formed a profit-sharing deal to co-market Lynparza and Koselugo in July 2017.
AstraZeneca and Merck’s Lynparza is approved for four cancer types, ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic. Lynparza is also being evaluated in an earlier-line setting for the approved cancer indications.
Alliance revenues from Lenvima may have also boosted oncology sales.
In the hospital specialty portfolio, higher demand and an increase in market share may have benefited sales of neuromuscular blockade medicine — Bridion injection. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bridion is $425 million, while our estimate is $372.6 million.
With regard to the HPV vaccine, Gardasil, ex-U.S. sales are expected to have been driven by strong demand in international markets like China in the second quarter. In the United States, sales were flat in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if sales trends improved in the second quarter. Overall, though Gardasil revenue growth in 2023 is expected to be higher than 2022 levels, the rate of growth in the second quarter is expected to have been less than the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gardasil is $1.99 billion.
Meanwhile, the top line is expected to have witnessed the impact of the loss of U.S. market exclusivity for drugs like Remicade, Noxafil and Zetia. Lower demand and pricing in the United States and generic competition in certain international markets may have hurt sales of the diabetes franchise (Januvia/Janumet). The drugs lost market exclusivity in China in July and the European Union in September last year.
Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ oral antiviral pill to treat COVID-19, Lagevrio (molnupiravir) is unlikely to have been a major contributor to top-line growth in the second quarter. Lagevrio sales are likely to have primarily come from international markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lagevriois $155 million, while our estimate is $220.7 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Merck’s Pharmaceutical unit is$11.88 billion.
The Animal Health franchise’s sales growth is likely to have contributed to top-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Animal Health unit is $1.55 billion, while our estimate is $1.63 billion.
Earnings Surprise History
This large drugmaker beat earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.77%, on average.
Merck’s stock has declined 3.1% so far this year against an increase of 2.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Merck time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Merck’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at a loss of $1.88 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AstraZeneca’s stock has risen 2% so far this year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.11%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Jul 28.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 19.9% so far this year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Image: Bigstock
Merck (MRK) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Merck (MRK - Free Report) will report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 1, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.48%.
Factors to Consider
Strong global underlying demand across its business, particularly for cancer drug Keytruda and HPV vaccine, Gardasil, is likely to have boosted sales growth in the second quarter like several previous quarters.
In oncology drugs, Keytruda sales are likely to have been driven by continued strong momentum in metastatic indications and rapid uptake across recent earlier-stage launches. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keytruda’s sales is $5.87 billion, while our estimate is $5.69 billion. However, Keytruda’s year-over-year growth rate in the United States is expected to have moderated in the second quarter as the impact of the strong initial uptake of earlier-stage indications softened. In outside U.S. markets, while volumes are expected to have remained strong, pricing is expected to have been a headwind.
Higher alliance revenues from Lynparza, driven by increased demand, may have boosted oncology sales. Please note that Merck markets Lynparza in partnership with AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) .
AstraZeneca and Merck formed a profit-sharing deal to co-market Lynparza and Koselugo in July 2017.
AstraZeneca and Merck’s Lynparza is approved for four cancer types, ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic. Lynparza is also being evaluated in an earlier-line setting for the approved cancer indications.
Alliance revenues from Lenvima may have also boosted oncology sales.
In the hospital specialty portfolio, higher demand and an increase in market share may have benefited sales of neuromuscular blockade medicine — Bridion injection. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bridion is $425 million, while our estimate is $372.6 million.
With regard to the HPV vaccine, Gardasil, ex-U.S. sales are expected to have been driven by strong demand in international markets like China in the second quarter. In the United States, sales were flat in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if sales trends improved in the second quarter. Overall, though Gardasil revenue growth in 2023 is expected to be higher than 2022 levels, the rate of growth in the second quarter is expected to have been less than the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gardasil is $1.99 billion.
Meanwhile, the top line is expected to have witnessed the impact of the loss of U.S. market exclusivity for drugs like Remicade, Noxafil and Zetia. Lower demand and pricing in the United States and generic competition in certain international markets may have hurt sales of the diabetes franchise (Januvia/Janumet). The drugs lost market exclusivity in China in July and the European Union in September last year.
Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ oral antiviral pill to treat COVID-19, Lagevrio (molnupiravir) is unlikely to have been a major contributor to top-line growth in the second quarter. Lagevrio sales are likely to have primarily come from international markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lagevriois $155 million, while our estimate is $220.7 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Merck’s Pharmaceutical unit is$11.88 billion.
The Animal Health franchise’s sales growth is likely to have contributed to top-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Animal Health unit is $1.55 billion, while our estimate is $1.63 billion.
Earnings Surprise History
This large drugmaker beat earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.77%, on average.
Merck & Co., Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Merck & Co., Inc. price-eps-surprise | Merck & Co., Inc. Quote
Merck’s stock has declined 3.1% so far this year against an increase of 2.5% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Merck time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Merck’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at a loss of $1.88 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Merck has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AstraZeneca has an Earnings ESP of +1.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AstraZeneca’s stock has risen 2% so far this year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.11%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Jul 28.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 19.9% so far this year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.