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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Down 14.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cleveland-Cliffs due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Cleveland-Cliffs’ Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates, Sales Beat

Cleveland-Cliffs’ second-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings were 69 cents per share, down from $1.31 in the prior-year quarter. The bottom line matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Revenues fell 5.6% to $5,984 million in the quarter. The top line, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,727 million.

Operational Highlights

The company reported Steelmaking revenues of $5.8 billion in the second quarter, down around 6% year over year.

Average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $1,255 in the quarter, down around 15.6% year over year. It was ahead of our estimate of $1,248. External sales volumes for steel products were roughly 4.2 million net tons, up around 15.4% year over year. It beat our estimate of 4.085 million net tons.

Financial Position

Cleveland-Cliffs ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $34 million, down around 27.6% year over year. Long-term debt declined 15.5% to $3,963 million.

Net cash provided in operating activities was $887 million in second-quarter 2023.

Cleveland-Cliffs repurchased 6.5 million shares during the second quarter. It recorded free cash flow of $756 million.

Outlook

The company currently estimates an additional $40 per net ton saving on steel unit costs from the second to the third quarter, with an additional $10 per ton reduction from the third to the fourth quarter of 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -34.94% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Cleveland-Cliffs has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Cleveland-Cliffs has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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