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Let’s take a look at the updated Zacks “Fair Value” estimates this month.
The Zacks “Fair Value” estimate, particularly for yearend 2026 on the S&P500 large cap share index, can guide successful investors.
Is the current U.S. share market “cheap” right now, or not?
A. Top-Down S&P500 Yearend 2026 and 2027 Targets
April 2026 is here.
This calendar year 2026 is trading differently.
To April 1st, 2026, the DJIA was down -2.75% and the S&P500 was down -3.57%. The Nasdaq was down -5.56%.
Entering 2026, share returns were excellent – for an unusual three years in a row.
In 2025, the narrow DJIA was up +12.16%, the broader market-weight S&P500 was up +17.88%, & the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up +21.33%. The small-cap RUT index was up +12.81%.
Across 2024, the narrow DJIA index was up +14.92%, the broader S&P500 index was up +25.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +24.88%. The small-cap RUT index was up +11.54%.
The historical expected annual return (using data from 1930 to 2021)? +7.9%.
Over the last 30 years? +11.1% annual U.S. returns.
8,349 is the “bottoms up” target for the next 12 months, on the S&P500. That is +28.9% over a closing price of 6,477.
In particular, note this: Zacks “Fair Value for Yearend 2026" is 7,064.
For YE 2027? It is 7,996.
That shows investors the current moment is showing an attractive entry point.
Of course, along as the Iran conflict comes to a graceful end.
Otherwise, this moment may well be a value trap for the bulls.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B. Zacks April 2026 Sector/Industry Telescope
March 31st, 2026 data showed Info Tech remained dominant at Very Attractive. Semiconductor EPS growth gets aloft via “AI” chip demand. Electronics demand is great too.
Energy rose to a Very Attractive rating in March; Iran a major cause for the upgrade.
Utilities rose to Very Attractive. Water Suppliers and Gas Distributors led the way.
Communication Services rose to a Very Attractive rating too. Telco Equipment ranked very high in March.
Financials fell to Market Weight. Rising recession risk, the private credit debacle, falling share prices and possible Fed rate hikes downshifted the momentum here.
Industrials fell to a Market Weight rating. Business Products was still strong.
Health Care stayed at a Market rating.
Materials fell to an Unattractive rating. Both Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were at an Unattractive rating too.
(1) Info Tech stayed at Very Attractive. Semis, Electronics, and Misc. Tech led again.
(4) Communications Services rose to Very Attractive from Market Weight. Strong Telco Equipment was the main reason.
(5) Industrials fell to Market Weight from Very Attractive. Business Product, Metal Fabricating, and Machinery were the best-ranked industries.
(6) Financials fell to Market Weight from Attractive. Major Banks, Banks & Thrifts, and Finance looked best.
(7) Health Care stayed at Market Weight. Medical Products was best, again.
(8) Materials fell to Unattractive from Attractive. Metals-non-Ferrous stayed solid (Reflecting high gold and silver prices). Building Products looked OK too.
(9) Consumer Staples fell to Unattractive. Tobacco was the best.
(10) Consumer Discretionary stayed at an Unattractive rating. Publishing was the best.
C. Conclusion
A change in Zacks leadership was the big top-down investing narrative in March: Info Tech, Energy, Communication Services, and Utilities were the Zacks sector leaders.
Drilling down one level further?
To no surprise, the Iran conflict showed up – with noted Zacks industry upgrades to Oil & Gas, Alternative Energy, and Natural Gas Distribution earnings estimates in March.
Enjoy the rest of my Zacks April 2026 Market Strategy report.
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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"Fair Value" for the S&P500? Zacks April Market Strategy
The following is an excerpt from Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank’s full Apr Market Strategy report To access the full PDF, click here.
Let’s take a look at the updated Zacks “Fair Value” estimates this month.
The Zacks “Fair Value” estimate, particularly for yearend 2026 on the S&P500 large cap share index, can guide successful investors.
Is the current U.S. share market “cheap” right now, or not?
A. Top-Down S&P500 Yearend 2026 and 2027 Targets
April 2026 is here.
This calendar year 2026 is trading differently.
To April 1st, 2026, the DJIA was down -2.75% and the S&P500 was down -3.57%. The Nasdaq was down -5.56%.
Entering 2026, share returns were excellent – for an unusual three years in a row.
In 2025, the narrow DJIA was up +12.16%, the broader market-weight S&P500 was up +17.88%, & the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up +21.33%. The small-cap RUT index was up +12.81%.
Across 2024, the narrow DJIA index was up +14.92%, the broader S&P500 index was up +25.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +24.88%. The small-cap RUT index was up +11.54%.
Next, Zacks’ updates traders on 2026, 2027 & 2028 S&P500 EPS “fair value” targets.
In particular, note this: Zacks “Fair Value for Yearend 2026" is 7,064.
For YE 2027? It is 7,996.
That shows investors the current moment is showing an attractive entry point.
Of course, along as the Iran conflict comes to a graceful end.
Otherwise, this moment may well be a value trap for the bulls.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B. Zacks April 2026 Sector/Industry Telescope
March 31st, 2026 data showed Info Tech remained dominant at Very Attractive. Semiconductor EPS growth gets aloft via “AI” chip demand. Electronics demand is great too.
Energy rose to a Very Attractive rating in March; Iran a major cause for the upgrade.
Utilities rose to Very Attractive. Water Suppliers and Gas Distributors led the way.
Communication Services rose to a Very Attractive rating too. Telco Equipment ranked very high in March.
Financials fell to Market Weight. Rising recession risk, the private credit debacle, falling share prices and possible Fed rate hikes downshifted the momentum here.
Industrials fell to a Market Weight rating. Business Products was still strong.
Health Care stayed at a Market rating.
Materials fell to an Unattractive rating. Both Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were at an Unattractive rating too.
(1) Info Tech stayed at Very Attractive. Semis, Electronics, and Misc. Tech led again.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report)
(2) Energy rose to Very Attractive from a Market Weight. Oil & Gas Integrated, Energy-Alternates, and Oil Misc. led the way, after the Iran conflict.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): Equinor (EQNR - Free Report)
(3) Utilities rose to Very Attractive from Market Weight. Utility-Water Supply was best.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY): RWE AG (RWEOY - Free Report)
(4) Communications Services rose to Very Attractive from Market Weight. Strong Telco Equipment was the main reason.
(5) Industrials fell to Market Weight from Very Attractive. Business Product, Metal Fabricating, and Machinery were the best-ranked industries.
(6) Financials fell to Market Weight from Attractive. Major Banks, Banks & Thrifts, and Finance looked best.
(7) Health Care stayed at Market Weight. Medical Products was best, again.
(8) Materials fell to Unattractive from Attractive. Metals-non-Ferrous stayed solid (Reflecting high gold and silver prices). Building Products looked OK too.
(9) Consumer Staples fell to Unattractive. Tobacco was the best.
(10) Consumer Discretionary stayed at an Unattractive rating. Publishing was the best.
C. Conclusion
A change in Zacks leadership was the big top-down investing narrative in March: Info Tech, Energy, Communication Services, and Utilities were the Zacks sector leaders.
Drilling down one level further?
To no surprise, the Iran conflict showed up – with noted Zacks industry upgrades to Oil & Gas, Alternative Energy, and Natural Gas Distribution earnings estimates in March.
Enjoy the rest of my Zacks April 2026 Market Strategy report.
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist