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What's in the Offing for ExxonMobil (XOM) in Q3 Earnings?

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 27, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the integrated energy giant’s earnings per share of $1.94 (excluding identified items) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2 due to lower realizations of crude prices, partially offset by encouraging finished lubes and basestock margins.

In the trailing four quarters, ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed the same once, delivering a surprise of 5.2%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s third-quarter earnings per share of $2.39 has witnessed eight upward movements and no downward revision over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a 46.3% decline from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues of $88 billion indicates a 21.5% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

The pricing scenario of oil and natural gas was impressive in the third quarter. Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average West Texas Intermediate crude prices per barrel in July, August and September were $76.07, $81.39 and $89.43, respectively. Although the prices were not as high as in the year-ago quarter, the commodity prices were impressive and healthy.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s daily production volumes is pegged at 3,722 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), suggesting an increase from the 3,716 MBoe/d reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the company’s daily production volumes is pinned at 3,736.3 MBoe/d, indicating an increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s earnings after income tax from the upstream segment is pegged at $5,505 million, suggesting a significant decline from the $12,419 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $4,285.8 million, also indicating a decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

This is likely to have affected ExxonMobil’s performance in the third quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.   

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The partnership is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 40 cents per share, suggesting a decline from the year-ago figure.

Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1,219.97% and is currently a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25.

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.17% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.

Antero Midstream is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AM’s earnings is pegged at 21 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 5%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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