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Chevron (CVX) Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Here's How It Will Fare
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Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 2. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $3.31 per share on revenues of $52.6 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the American energy biggie’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Chevron’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player missed the consensus mark due to weak results in its downstream segment. Chevron had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.05, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.68. However, revenues of $54.1 billion had come in $81 million above the consensus mark on higher liquids production.
CVX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in an earnings surprise of (2.2%), on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.2% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 19.1% deterioration year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 6.9% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Chevron is expected to have benefited from an uptick in oil and gas production, primarily reflecting robust output in the showpiece Permian Basin region. As a matter of fact, for the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total volume is pegged at 3,231 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), indicating a rise from the prior-year quarter’s output of 3,011 MBOE/d.
A dip in costs might have buoyed CVX’s profit and margins even further. In the third quarter of 2023, the company’s purchased oil and products cost decreased by 16.6% from the year-ago period to $32.3. The decline is most likely to have continued in the fourth quarter on the back of Chevron’s prudent expense management policies.
However, as a counter to its production gains, Chevron is expected to have been weighed down by the drop in hydrocarbon realizations. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in October, November and December 2022, the average monthly WTI crude price was $87.55, $84.37 and $76.44 per barrel, respectively. Average prices were $85.64 in October, $77.69 in November and $71.90 in December, i.e., weaker year over year.
The news is even more bearish on the natural gas front. In Q4 of 2022, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices were $5.66 per MMBtu in October, $5.45 in November and $5.53 in December. The fuel traded at $2.98, $2.71 and $2.53 per MMBtu in October, November and December, respectively. In other words, natural gas traded noticeably lower in all three months.
On a further bearish note, a relatively weaker macro backdrop is expected to have impacted Chevron’s refined product sales, which is estimated to have declined 1.2% year over year to 2,645 thousand barrels per day.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Chevron is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -0.77%.
Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Chevron, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 30.
MPLX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. Valued at around $38 billion, MPLX has gained 9.3% in a year.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 2.
ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.6%, on average. Valued at around $408.2 billion, XOM has lost 9.3% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 9.
Plains All American Pipeline beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.3%, on average. Valued at around $11.4 billion, PAA has gained 31.3% in a year.
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Chevron (CVX) Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Here's How It Will Fare
Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 2. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $3.31 per share on revenues of $52.6 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the American energy biggie’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Chevron’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player missed the consensus mark due to weak results in its downstream segment. Chevron had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.05, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.68. However, revenues of $54.1 billion had come in $81 million above the consensus mark on higher liquids production.
CVX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in an earnings surprise of (2.2%), on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Chevron Corporation price-eps-surprise | Chevron Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.2% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 19.1% deterioration year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 6.9% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Chevron is expected to have benefited from an uptick in oil and gas production, primarily reflecting robust output in the showpiece Permian Basin region. As a matter of fact, for the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total volume is pegged at 3,231 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), indicating a rise from the prior-year quarter’s output of 3,011 MBOE/d.
A dip in costs might have buoyed CVX’s profit and margins even further. In the third quarter of 2023, the company’s purchased oil and products cost decreased by 16.6% from the year-ago period to $32.3. The decline is most likely to have continued in the fourth quarter on the back of Chevron’s prudent expense management policies.
However, as a counter to its production gains, Chevron is expected to have been weighed down by the drop in hydrocarbon realizations. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in October, November and December 2022, the average monthly WTI crude price was $87.55, $84.37 and $76.44 per barrel, respectively. Average prices were $85.64 in October, $77.69 in November and $71.90 in December, i.e., weaker year over year.
The news is even more bearish on the natural gas front. In Q4 of 2022, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices were $5.66 per MMBtu in October, $5.45 in November and $5.53 in December. The fuel traded at $2.98, $2.71 and $2.53 per MMBtu in October, November and December, respectively. In other words, natural gas traded noticeably lower in all three months.
On a further bearish note, a relatively weaker macro backdrop is expected to have impacted Chevron’s refined product sales, which is estimated to have declined 1.2% year over year to 2,645 thousand barrels per day.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Chevron is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -0.77%.
Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Chevron, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 30.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
MPLX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. Valued at around $38 billion, MPLX has gained 9.3% in a year.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 2.
ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.6%, on average. Valued at around $408.2 billion, XOM has lost 9.3% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 9.
Plains All American Pipeline beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.3%, on average. Valued at around $11.4 billion, PAA has gained 31.3% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.